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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Declines Over 3% After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

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Crude futures retreated over 3% on Thursday as a newly brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sparked hopes for broader US-Iran diplomacy while data showed US crude inventories tightened further.

Front-month Murban crude futures dipped 3.9% to $93.36 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 3.1% to $94.76/bbl.

The immediate geopolitical panic was partially cooled late Wednesday by news that Israel and Lebanon had finalized a conditional ceasefire framework.

The breakthrough raised cautious hopes that a broader backchannel deal could be brokered between Washington and Tehran, given that Iran had previously conditioned any maritime de-escalation on a complete cessation of hostilities along the Lebanese front.

"However, the broader regional conflict remains unresolved and risks to energy supplies persist," Saxo Bank analysts said.

"Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that normally handles around one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, has recovered modestly but remains well below pre-conflict levels, continuing to support a significant geopolitical risk premium across energy markets," they added.

As the Middle East conflict enters its fourth month, the Western hemisphere's buffer against sudden supply disruptions is rapidly drying up under the weight of robust international export demand and domestic refining runs.

In its official weekly report released on Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration confirmed that domestic commercial crude inventories plummeted by a massive 8 million barrels for the week ended May 29, dragging total stockpiles down to 433.7 million barrels.

Market experts warn that until Middle Eastern oil flows normalize completely, global balances remain acutely exposed to sudden, violent upward price spikes as commercial stockpiles continue to thin out.

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Ivanhoe Mines Up 1.3% As Says Kipushi Mine Set To Become World's Fourth Largest Zinc Producer In 2026

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) Executive Co-Chairman Robert Friedland and President and Chief Executive Officer Marna Cloete announced Thursday that the Kipushi Mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) achieved a monthly production record of 25,677 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in May.Among highlights, the Ivanhoe management said a production record was achieved as zinc prices near four-year highs, and added the Kipushi Mine is set to become world's fourth largest zinc producer in 2026.During the month, the concentrators milled a record 72,003 tonnes of ore at an average recovery of 93%, with an average plant feed grade of 36.2% zinc. The production record is 12% higher than the previous record of 22,968 tonnes of zinc, which was set in January 2026, the company said.Year-to-date zinc production totals approximately 110,000 tonnes of zinc. Annualized, this is equivalent to approximately the mid-point of the 2026 production guidance range of 240,000 to 290,000 tonnes of zinc, the company added.During May, 85,811 tonnes of ore were mined and hoisted to the surface. At the end of May, approximately 12,000 tonnes of ore were stored in surface, high-grade run-of-mine (ROM) stockpiles, at a grade of approximately 37% zinc. The lower-grade stockpiles contain 254,000 tonnes of ore with an average grade of approximately 22% zinc, Ivanhoe noted.Shares were last seen up 1.3% at $12.51.Price: $12.31, Change: $-0.04, Percent Change: -0.32%

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AI Electricity Use Could More Than Double by 2030, UN University Says

Global data centers powering artificial intelligence are projected to consume 945 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2030, more than twice the 2025 consumption of 448 TWh, researchers at the United Nations University said Wednesday."Data centers are becoming country-scale consumers of electricity, water and land," according to a university analysis, which notes that the infrastructure would have been the world's 11th largest electricity consumer in 2025, behind France and ahead of Saudi Arabia.The researchers projected that data centers will carry a water footprint of 9.3 trillion liters by 2030, mainly from cooling and power generation. Associated land footprint is estimated at over 14,500 square kilometers, from energy infrastructure and supply chains.The report highlighted that AI's environmental cost is "systematically mismeasured," as current focus is only on carbon emissions."If we keep judging AI sustainability by carbon alone, we might think that renewables make AI infrastructure clean, but that is solving one problem while creating other problems, often in places that didn't ask for it," said UNU researcher Miriam Aczel.ChatGPT alone, as noted in the report, processes around 2.5 billion prompts per day, which translate to about 383 gigawatt-hours of electricity per year."Per-query energy varies by orders of magnitude depending on the task," the report said, with a typical conversational chat query requiring 200 times as much energy as basic text classification. A single AI image, meanwhile, would require around 1,450 times that baseline.The analysis also highlighted that AI computing is geographically concentrated, with only 32 countries hosting AI-specialized data centers, 90% of which are located in just two countries. More than 150 countries, on the other hand, have little to no access to AI computing.In Ireland, the national grid operator has reportedly paused new approvals for AI infrastructure around Dublin through 2028, due to surging power demand. Data centers accounted for 21% of total metered electricity in 2023.In Mexico and Uruguay, water supply concerns have arisen as high water use by data centers coincides with drought.By 2030, electronic waste from AI infrastructure could total 2.5 million metric tons per year, with low-income economies processing most of it due to a lack of restrictions, according to the researchers.Critical minerals, meanwhile, are extracted from regions with weak environmental oversight, the report said.

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Market Chatter: Iranian Oil Slips to Discounts, Russian Crude Premiums Ease

Iranian crude oil prices have flipped to discounts for the first time since April, while Russian crude premiums are easing, Reuters reported Thursday, citing sources.As per the report, trade sources revealed that both nations are slashing prices to entice independent Chinese refiners amid sluggish demand, threatening oil revenues in Moscow and Tehran.Iranian Light crude cargoes for June delivery to Shandong province are now being offered at a discount of 50 cents to $1 per barrel against the ICE Brent contract, the report noted.This marks a sharp reversal from the $1 to $2 premiums seen over the past two months.Simultaneously, premiums for Russia's popular ESPO crude have weakened.June barrels are trading at a $3 to $4 premium to ICE Brent, down from the $4 to $5 premiums fetched last month, the report said.Both the countries did not respond immediately to' request for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)