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Libya Pushes Ahead With Refinery Restart as Energy Sector Gains Momentum, Kpler Says

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Libya's plan to restart the 220,000-barrel-per-day Ras Lanuf refinery could curb fuel imports and reduce crude shipments to Europe, Kpler said in a note on Wednesday.

After reaching an agreement with its Emirati partner in mid-May, Libya's National Oil, also known as NOC, took full ownership of Ras Lanuf, ending a years-long dispute and clearing the way for refurbishment work, Kpler said.

Kpler expects Libya's oil production to hold near 1.35 million b/d to 1.4 million b/d through 2027, although the firm believes the refinery is more likely to return during the second half of 2027 than within the timeline suggested by the NOC.

Libya's energy sector gained momentum this year as TotalEnergies (TTE) and ConocoPhillips (COP) extended the Waha Oil concession through 2050 in January, followed by the country's first licensing round in 17 years in February, Kpler said.

Repsol-led groups, MOL, the Eni-QatarEnergy partnership, Chevron (CVX) and Aiteo secured the licenses, while joint projects with Eni (E), Repsol and Sonatrach resulted in three new hydrocarbon discoveries in April, Kpler said.

Libya currently refines about 100,000 b/d, with Zawiya accounting for most of that volume, while Marsa El Brega processes about 9,000 b/d, Sarir handles 10,000 b/d and Tobruk contributes roughly 20,000 b/d, Kpler estimates.

Libya consumes as much as 250,000 b/d of transport fuels, including 90,000 b/d to 100,000 b/d of gasoline and 140,000 b/d to 150,000 b/d of diesel, Kpler data show.

To meet that demand, Libya imports over 150,000 b/d of refined products, sourcing gasoline mainly from Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Spain, while diesel supplies largely come from Italy and Turkey.

If Ras Lanuf resumes operations, Libya could replace a large share of those imports with domestic production.

The refinery would use Amna, Sarir and Mesla crude grades, which currently account for 270,000 b/d to 300,000 b/d of exports, potentially forcing buyers in Italy and the UK to find alternative supplies, Kpler said.

Price: $89.62, Change: $+0.22, Percent Change: +0.25%

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