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EMEA Oil Update: Brent Hovers Close to $125 as Trump Rejects Hormuz Reopening Proposal

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Crude oil prices were mixed on Thursday after the US reportedly rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, taking Brent close to the $125 per barrel mark.

Brent futures rose 3.3% to $121.97/bbl and hit a high of $126 earlier in the session while front-month Murban crude futures slipped by 3.4% to $109.61 per barrel,

"Brent cracks 120/bbl as supply shortages mount," ANZ analysts said.

"The rally in crude oil prices shows no signs of slowing, as the prospect of an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on sentiment," ANZ added.

The breakdown in diplomacy, paired with a directive from President Donald Trump to prepare for an extended blockade, has left traders bracing for a protracted supply deficit that demand destruction alone may not be able to bridge.

A number of analysts have said in recent weeks that oil prices of around the $100 per barrel level did not reflect the severity of the shock to global energy inflicted by the conflict and that they expected them to eventually climb.

"The breakdown of talks between the US and Iran, along with President Trump reportedly rejecting Iran's proposal for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has the market losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows," ING said.

"While we estimate demand destruction in the region of 1.6m b/d, which is significant, it's clearly not enough to fill the supply gap we are currently facing," ING added.

Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that Iran has only 12 to 22 days of unused storage capacity remaining.

Once these facilities are full, Tehran will be forced to cut daily output by an additional 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels per day.

Such a cut would be layered on top of the estimated 10 mb/d already shut in due to the strait's closure.

ING analysts warned that while regional demand destruction is estimated at roughly 1.6 mb/d, that is insufficient to bridge the widening supply gap, suggesting that higher prices may be the only remaining lever to balance the market.

US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday, amid signs of tightening supplies.

Meanwhile, Trump on Wednesday reportedly said the UAE's decision to leave OPEC could help ease rising energy prices. The country announced its departure after nearly six decades in order to raise production of crude towards capacity level.

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