The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil flows and raising risks of supply shortages and government intervention, Macquarie said Wednesday.
Strategists said prolonged disruption will likely push governments to step in more aggressively as countries prioritize energy security and manage tightening supply, according to the report.
Governments can release stockpiles, cut taxes, or restrict exports, with some already adopting measures similar to China and Thailand to protect domestic supply, strategists said.
Markets are assessing the possibility of US export restrictions or tariffs despite repeated denials from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Macquarie added.
Restricting exports would lower US domestic fuel prices but tighten supply for key importers such as Europe and Australia, creating broader market disruptions, according to Macquarie.
Europe faces pressure on jet fuel supply, as about 40% of jet fuel comes from the Middle East just as summer travel demand starts to rise, Macquarie said.
Four airports in Italy have already limited jet fuel availability during Easter, while airlines are trimming less profitable routes to manage supply constraints, strategists at Macquarie said.
Asian governments are imposing export controls, releasing reserves, and introducing emergency measures to manage fuel shortages and stabilize markets, Macquarie added.
Authorities are implementing policies such as four-day workweeks, school closures, and remote work while supporting fuel procurement through state-backed programs, strategists said.
Rural fuel shortages persist across parts of Asia as distribution challenges continue despite government intervention, according to Macquarie.
China is supplying fuel to allied countries while Thailand is considering broader regional support, increasing government-to-government energy deals, strategists said.