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EMEA Oil Update: Brent Dips as US Issues Iranian Oil Sanctions Waiver

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Brent crude futures extended decline for a second day on Tuesday after the US issued a 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil easing supply concerns and hinting at the progress in peace talks between US and Iran.

The Brent futures contract declined about 1.5% at $76.76 per barrel and hovered near early-March levels. Murban futures hit its lowest since Feb. 18 and was down 1.3% at $69.90/bbl.

The US Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued "General License X" on Monday, granting a 60-day waiver that permits the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21.

"Brent crude trades near $77.50 and is lower for a second day as US-Iran talks continue. Additional pressure followed the US decision to issue a 60-day sanctions waiver, allowing limited sales of Iranian crude and refined products," Saxo Bank analysts said.

"The move should facilitate the export of some of the estimated 30 million barrels that left Iranian ports last week," the analysts said.

However, near-term price volatility hinges on the normalization of Persian Gulf upstream production and transit speeds through the Hormuz chokepoint, ING analysts noted.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts a downward price trend over the next 18 months, projecting Brent to average $92 per barrel in 2026 and drop to $78 per barrel in 2027, contingent on transit via the Strait of Hormuz normalizing by August.

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US Oil Update: Futures Drop After US Authorizes Iranian Crude Sales

Crude oil futures fell in after-hours trading on Monday after the US issued a temporary license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude and petroleum products, easing supply concerns and signaling significant progress in negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 1.8% to $75.15 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 3.2% to $78.28/bbl.Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said the prospect of strong supply, combined with softer Chinese demand, has weighed on prices and reduced the war-related risk premium.The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued "General License X" on Monday, granting a 60-day waiver that permits the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21.The waiver also allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products into the US."In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X.TankerTrackers said Iran has exported 36 million barrels of crude oil since June 15, and about an equal amount remains afloat in Iran.Meanwhile, the US and Iran on Monday made progress during peace talks aimed at reaching a final deal within 60 days, including an agreement to end hostilities in Lebanon.Vice President J D Vance said that talks between the US and Iran have made "great progress."Earlier on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon."Tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War," Araghchi said in a social media post on X. "Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran."On the supply front, the latest shipping data show an uptick in oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the 19-21 June period, though overall flows remain below pre-conflict levels.Kpler said a total of 71 confirmed vessel transits via the strategic waterway, with activity peaking at 35 crossings on Saturday.However, tanker traffic via the Strait remains about 15% below pre-conflict levels, EBW Analytics said, adding that alternative supply routes and weakening Asian demand are helping loosen balances.

Oil & Energy

Middle East Supply Losses Top 1.2 Billion Barrels as Recovery Takes Shape, Kpler Says

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Oil & Energy

LNG Trade Remains Resilient as Hormuz Traffic Gradually Recovers, Vortexa Says

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