FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise after Vance Signals US-Iran Peace Deal May Take Longer to Finalize

By

European natural gas futures were up on Friday, after US Vice President JD Vance hinted that the peace deal between the US and Iran could take a while longer to materialize.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 1.42% at 47.640 euros ($55.42) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract rose 1.54% to 115.180 pence ($1.54) per therm.

According to multiple reports, both the US and Iran have agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension, pending the approval of US President Donald Trump. However, comments by Vance, saying that a deal was "close" but "not there yet," kept energy prices from a steep slide.

Vance further told reporters on Thursday that it was too early to say "when or if" the two warring sides would finalize an agreement, adding to the uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the 13th week running, with just five vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that the Strait's closure was now building to a point where "European buyers will be in a fight for any available LNG."

This comes as European gas inventories remain depleted at just 39.13% of capacity, compared to 46.88% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also considerably lower than the five-year average for this period, at 52.8%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

In a meeting of the European Commission's Gas Coordination Group on Tuesday, member states assured that the region's gas inventories could touch 80% of capacity by the end of the Summer, while still noting the importance of regular storage assessments.

Uniper, a German utility, has, however, pushed back against this claim, while sounding the alarm on storage inventories being refilled very slowly, with the company's CEO, Michael Lewis warning that it will face supply issues in winter, if the inventories are not filled quickly.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Japan's April Oil Imports Plummet YOY As Iran War Disrupts Supply

Japan's imports of crude oil plummeted to 4.07 billion liters in April down from 11.87 billion liters in the same month of 2025, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed.Underscoring Asia's reliance on Middle Eastern supplies, nearly 94% of Japan's imports of crude in April 2025 were from the Middle East at 11.13 billion liters. In April this year, Middle East crude receipts plunged to 3.56 billion liters.Of Japan's two biggest Middle Eastern supplies, receipts from Saudi Arabia more than halved year over year, while imports from the UAE fell by more than two-thirds, the data showed.Imports from the US, while small, fell to 314.2 million liters in April, from 466.5 million liters in April 2025, and smaller quantities from South America also fell.

Oil & Energy

Saudi Arabia Likely to Lower July Oil Price to Asia on Slower Demand, Reuters Survey Shows

Saudi Arabia could cut official selling prices, or OSPs, for crude oil shipments to Asia in July, which would mark a second month of cuts, according to a survey by Reuters.This is due to slower demand despite loss of significant supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the start of the Iran war.The premium for the July OSP could slip to between $7.50 and $12.50 a barrel over average Dubai and Oman price quotes, according to five survey participants. That would be $3 to $8 lower than the OSP for June.This would follow a drop in prices and a relatively quiet spot market throughout May when the cash Dubai price premium over swaps has averaged $8.90 versus $13.92 in April, according to Reuters data. Spot Oman premiums showed similar trends.The Dubai premium rose to a record in March above $60 per barrel but the hike prompted Chinese refiners to slow activity as more expensive feedstock imports thinned margin or caused losses.Brent and Murban crude futures were volatile this week amid the roller coaster of hope and despondency over prospects for a peace deal, with the publication of details of a draft framework in the midst of a limited missile strikes traded between the sides.Saudi crude OSPs are usually published around the fifth of each month by state-owned Saudi Aramco which sets them, the article said.Aramco does not comment on OSPs.

Oil & Energy

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Dips as Traders Assess Potential US-Iran Peace Deal

Global crude benchmarks edged lower on Friday as traders assessed reports of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Persian Gulf.Front-month Murban crude futures fell 1.7% to $92.50 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped 1.3% to $92.47/bbl. Both contracts were headed for their second straight week of losses.ING analysts said that the "oil market continues to edge lower amid growing optimism that the US and Iran are moving toward a deal."US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly close to a memorandum of understanding that would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and allow "unrestricted" passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without paying tolls to Iran.However, ING noted that the deal faces structural hurdles, highlighting that there has been no official confirmation or supporting detail released from the Iranian side."Optimism continues to grow after reports that the US and Iran are set to extend a ceasefire, which will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, President Trump still needs to sign off on the deal," ING added.The fragile nature of the peace talks was starkly underscored on the geopolitical front, where active military operations continue to clash with diplomatic headlines.On the supply side, US crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels to 441.7 mmbbls in the week ended May 22, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday.Oil inventories are nearing "unheard of" levels that will lead to increased prices in the next few weeks, Neil Chapman, senior vice president of Exxon Mobil (XOM), said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in New York.

$XOM