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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Ease on US-Iran Negotiations

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European natural gas futures eased in after-hours trading on Thursday following a volatile session, as markets tracked diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East and to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The front-month Dutch TTF natural gas contract edged down 0.081% to 49.385 euros ($57.26) per megawatt hour, and the UK front-month NBP contract slipped 0.273% to 120.38 British pence ($1.61) per therm.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday expressed cautious optimism that an agreement could be reached, but said any diplomatic breakthrough would become "unfeasible" if Iran were to impose a toll on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Supply concerns also remained in focus.

Norway sold 10.2 billion standard cubic meters of natural gas last month, down 700 million cubic meters from the previous month, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. Norwegian gas production averaged 339.2 million standard cubic meters per day in April, exceeding official forecasts, OilPrice.com reported.

Although gas volumes declined 3.5% from March and were 2.8% lower than April 2025 levels, the figures highlighted the resilience of Norwegian supply after seasonal maintenance and exceptionally strong winter demand earlier this year, the report said.

Meanwhile, Gas Infrastructure Europe said EU gas storage levels remained below 37%, standing at 36.87% of capacity compared with 45.16% a year earlier.

Europe could face a significant gas storage shortfall if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, as low inventories and unfavorable market pricing continue to hinder summer stockpiling efforts, according to executives at Equinor, Reuters reported.

Equinor said a prompt resumption of shipping flows could still allow Europe to reach storage levels of around 75%, but prolonged disruptions would threaten the European Union's 90% winter storage target and could force prices higher to curb demand and rebalance the market.

"If prices return to the 60-70 euros/MWh range seen at the start of the Iran war, gas-to-power demand alone could fall by around 10 billion cubic meters," Peder Bjorland, Equinor's vice president for gas trading, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Flame energy conference in Amsterdam.

European gas prices peaked at 74 euros/MWh in March, their highest level since January 2023.

Separately, Equinor's head of LNG told Montel that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could delay an anticipated global LNG supply glut by as much as two years.

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