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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Ease on Potential Progress in US-Iran Peace Talks

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European natural gas futures eased in after-hours trade on Friday, tracking weaker crude oil as markets weighed progress in Middle East peace efforts alongside improving European supply conditions.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 2.921% to 47.965 euros ($55.67) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 3.741% to 116.30 British pence ($1.56) per therm.

Sentiment was supported earlier in the session by a rebound in Norwegian supply after some maintenance work at the Troll gas field concluded.

Flows from Norway to Europe rose roughly 40%, lifting output to about 260 million cubic meters per day, according to estimates cited by Trading Economics.

The increase helped offset tighter production elsewhere in the region. Norwegian exports are typically constrained during the April-September maintenance season.

Storage remains a central market concern ahead of the winter season. Elevated prices earlier in the year have limited injections during the summer refill period. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU gas storage at 36.99% of capacity, compared with 45.29% at the same point last year.

National levels remain uneven, with Germany at 28.48%, France at 37.74%, Sweden at 9.94%, and Portugal at 91.26%.

On liquefied natural gas, market participants flagged potential competition from Asia for available cargoes, which could constrain Europe's ability to rebuild inventories even as spot prices soften.

Mind Energy noted that Asian demand could emerge as a competing pull factor, limiting restocking flexibility during the summer window.

Weather outlooks added little directional clarity. Atmospheric G2 forecast a shift toward a more Atlantic-driven pattern over the next two weeks, likely bringing more unsettled and variable conditions across northwestern Europe. However, it cautioned that model divergence remains wide, leaving short-term demand signals uncertain.

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