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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires, Another Strike on Vessel in Hormuz

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European natural gas futures were rallying on Tuesday after the US-Iran ceasefire expired without making any progress, and a projectile struck a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 1.55% to 62.715 euros ($72.57) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures gained 1.61% to 155.000 British pence ($2.10) per therm.

US President Donald Trump said that he wasn't seeking an extension of the ceasefire, while calling on Tehran to surrender instead. Trump said Iran should "wave the right flag of surrender," in an interview with Fox News on Monday.

Meanwhile, a commercial vessel transiting through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile early on Tuesday, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations, adding to the heightened tensions across the region.

Traffic along the strategically crucial strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, stood at 18 on Monday, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, once again highlighted the intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes, especially with the former entering winter with significantly below-average gas inventory levels.

European gas inventories stood at 61.11% of capacity, compared to 73.63% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 78.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher As Markets Weigh Iran Offensive Threats

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday as markets weighed reports that Iran will shift to an offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict with the US have stalled.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed by 3.1% to $84.95 per barrel, while Brent futures rallied 2.9% to $91.11/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the US is preparing additional economic measures against Iran, while Iran is reportedly strengthening its military capabilities and regional alliances.On Monday, an Iranian official reportedly said that entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Hormuz and the wider region, as talks between Tehran and Washington appear to be at a standstill after a 60-day truce expired.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baqaei, ruled out talks to extend the memorandum of understanding and alleged that the US violated the 60-day truce from the outset."We did not start any negotiations at all, and the US violated the understanding from the very beginning; therefore, the 60-day issue is not relevant," Baqaei said, according to Tasnim.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also said that it is prepared to respond to any threat or aggression as a 60-day truce with the US expires with no breakthrough in sight for talks to end the Middle East conflict.The US and Iran agreed to an MoU on June 17 that was supposed to open the Hormuz while they negotiated a final deal on Tehran's nuclear program within 60 days.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that the US' path forward will be economic sanctions, which is "a very lengthy process" with a "highly uncertain outcome."On Monday, Trump reportedly threatened to bomb Oman if the Gulf state gets in the way of the American blockade of Iranian ships. The US president also reiterated Washington's stance that Iran must agree to give up on possessing nuclear weapons.The rhetoric comes after Trump signaled that the administration intends to hit Iran's economy even harder, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that new economic curbs could be unveiled this week.Meanwhile, commercial vessel traffic via the strait last week while vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb strait increased, according to the latest data from MarineTraffic.Confirmed crossings through Hormuz dropped 19.5% to 95 vessels last week from 118 in the week prior, MarineTraffic data showed, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, increased 6.7% last week to 254 crossings from 238.On Saturday, the UAE said that a "hostile Iranian attack" had targeted an Adnoc-affiliated vessel while it was transiting the strait. The incident followed two other attacks on Adnoc-linked ships.

Oil & Energy

Hormuz Traffic Falls as Security Risks Rise Across Gulf Shipping Lanes

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle last week as persistent regional security threats continued to deter operators, while traffic via the Bab el-Mandeb showed improved visibility despite ongoing threats, according to shipping data released Monday.The latest data from MarineTraffic show that a total of 95 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz last week, down 19.5% from 118 during Aug. 2-9.Daily traffic dropped to just three vessels on Aug. 16. "Activity peaked at 19 crossings on 11 August, then declined through the weekend, reaching 3 crossings on 16 August," according to MarineTraffic.Routing patterns also remained constrained. The maritime analytics firm said that 51 confirmed crossings used Iran's unilateral routing scheme, and 44 were classified as "route undetermined."No transits were recorded through the International Maritime Organization's Hormuz Traffic Separator Scheme and the Omani route."The weekly risk profile included 62 All Rest crossings, 25 shadow fleet crossings and 8 sanctioned crossings," MarineTraffic said.The decline comes as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to conduct attacks, attempted attacks and harassment of commercial shipping, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said on Sunday.Three confirmed attacks were recorded during the latest reporting period, while other activity included unmanned aerial vehicle overflights and targeted surveillance of merchant vessels.The UKMTO warned about risk of drifting or uncharted mines also remains, with mine danger areas still active around the traffic separation scheme.Meanwhile, Trump said Monday that the US naval blockade remains a "wall of steel" and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for vessels."As of Aug. 17, Centcom forces have redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled 3, and boarded 2 to ensure compliance," US Central Command posted on X on Monday.The prolonged disruption to Hormuz could force producers, refiners and traders to rely more heavily on alternative export routes and inventories.Meanwhile, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb moved in the opposite direction. Confirmed crossings increased 6.7% to 254 last week, according to MarineTraffic, although the number of dark transits dropped to 16 from 40.Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased over the week, with 254 confirmed transits from Aug. 10-16, up from 238 during Aug. 3-9. "Activity remained resilient, with daily crossings ranging from 27 to 43," according to MarineTraffic.Additionally, vessel visibility also improved in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compared with the previous week.Dark transits fell from 40 during Aug. 3-9 to 16 during Aug. 10-16, even as total crossings increased, MarineTraffic said, noting that this was a "positive visibility signal.""Directionally, traffic was weighted toward vessels entering the Red Sea, with 150 entries versus 104 exits," MarineTraffic said.UKMTO said commercial activity through the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained reduced, consistent with the pattern established after the July 20 Houthi declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and earlier attacks on vessels in the region.The security picture in Bab el-Mandeb remains volatile despite the absence of a fresh confirmed attack in the southern Red Sea.Oman has intensified efforts to mitigate potential environmental impacts from an oil spill caused by the grounding of the vessel Caroline Bezengi, the country's Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology said on Monday.

Oil & Energy

Trump Says Iran Wants Deal, Claims US Control of Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran wants a deal but not on the terms he considers necessary, as the US maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.President Trump made the remarks while addressing members of the media at the White House."They want to make a deal, but they're not going to make the kind of a deal that I feel is necessary," Trump said.Trump said Washington's objective remains preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, pointing to the damage from previous US military action involving B-2 bombers."Look, we're in there for one reason, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon... and they won't have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.Trump said the US has imposed a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz and claimed Washington now has total control of the strategic waterway.Trump also backed declaring the Strait of Hormuz a US territory, saying the US already controls the waterway through its blockade."We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory. We have total control over the strait," Trump said.The US president said that Iran could be a "nuisance," as they put mines in the water, which causes risks for ships worth billions of dollars.He added that the strait is open. "... the blockade has been very effective, and you know we're taking out... millions of barrels of oil a week," Trump said.He went on to say that the Strait of Hormuz was open to vessels. "The strait is open, and the oil prices are coming down, and they will continue to come down unless we decide to do something far more drastic than we're doing," Trump said.Asked about Oman obstructing efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "I don't think they'd behave very well, but we'd handle them very easily, just like we do other things."Trump criticized South Korea for declining to help with the US operation in Iran, despite 39,000 US troops stationed there to protect the country from North Korea.Trump also said European countries receive extensive US protection against Russia while contributing less to shared security, arguing that Washington should not continue to bear disproportionate costs for its allies."We spend hundreds of billions of dollars protecting Europe from Russia...," Trump said, adding that he wants greater fairness from countries benefiting from US security commitments.