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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Uncertainties Cloud US-Iran Peace Deal

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European natural gas futures were up on Friday, after US Vice President JD Vance hinted that the peace deal between the US and Iran could take longer than expected.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 0.10% at 47.020 euros ($54.78) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract rose 0.33% to 113.800 British pence ($1.53) per therm.

Both the Dutch TTF and UK Gas were set to end the week down by 3.24% and 3.16%, respectively, according to Trading Economics.

Multiple media outlets reported that the US and Iran have agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension, pending the approval of US President Donald Trump. However, comments by Vance, and latest push back from Iran, through Tasnim news agency, suggest the war is anything but over yet.

Vance told reporters on Thursday that it was too early to say "when or if" the two warring sides would finalize an agreement, adding to the uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the 13th week running, with just five vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that 24 vessels had transited via the Strait over the past 24 hours, in coordination with Iranian authorities, according to an Al Jazeera report, citing Iran's Fars News Agency.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that the Strait's closure was now building to a point where "European buyers will be in a fight for any available LNG."

This comes as European gas inventories remain depleted at just 39.13% of capacity, compared to 46.88% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also considerably lower than the five-year average for this period, at 52.8%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

In a meeting of the European Commission's Gas Coordination Group on Tuesday, member states assured that the region's gas inventories could touch 80% of capacity by the end of the Summer, while still noting the importance of regular storage assessments.

Uniper, a German utility, has, however, pushed back against this claim, while sounding the alarm on storage inventories being refilled very slowly, with the company's CEO, Michael Lewis, warning that it will face supply issues in winter if the inventories are not filled quickly.

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