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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Renewed Supply Risks and Low Storage

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European natural gas futures ticked higher in after-hours trading Thursday as renewed conflict between the US and Iran unsettled energy markets and revived concerns over supply routes.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract edged up 0.032% to 50.005 euros ($57.55) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 0.083% to 120.42 British pence ($1.61) per therm.

The Dutch contract eased from Wednesday's peak near 50.3 euros/MWh, the highest level in over three weeks, according to Trading Economics.

Sentiment weakened after renewed US strikes on Iranian targets following accusations that Tehran was stalling negotiations. Iran reportedly responded by restricting maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz and striking vessels in the corridor. The developments intensified fears of further disruption in the chokepoint.

Market focus remains on potential risks to supply security heading into the winter storage season. European inventories stand at 43.10% of capacity, down from 51.79% a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 57.1%, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy show.

Weather outlooks are adding further pressure. Severe Weather Europe warned in a Thursday social media post that strengthening El Nino conditions are beginning to show atmospheric impacts across Europe and North America, with potential implications for energy demand and volatility into autumn.

In France, EDF flagged the possibility of output restrictions at its Saint-Alban nuclear plant next week due to high temperatures, raising concerns over tighter regional power balances during peak summer demand.

On the supply side, LNG flows from Russia edged higher. The Maritime Executive reported increased European imports from Novatek's Yamal LNG plant, with volumes up roughly 18% in the first five months of the year compared with the same period in 2025.

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Commodities

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