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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally As Trump Repeats Hormuz Strait as US Territory Assertion

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European natural gas futures were rallying on Tuesday after the US-Iran ceasefire expired without making any progress, as US President Donald Trump repeated a reference to the Strait of Hormuz becoming US territory.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 1.20% to 62.500 euros ($72.34) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures gained 1.13% to 154.270 British pence ($2.09) per therm.

US President Donald Trump said that he wasn't seeking an extension of the ceasefire, while calling on Tehran to surrender instead. Trump said Iran should "wave the right flag of surrender," in an interview with Fox News on Monday.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump called the strait a "new US territory," adding to the precariousness of the situation.

Traffic along the strait stood at 18 on Monday, according to data from ShipFinder, still significantly below its peacetime averages.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, once again highlighted the intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes, especially with the former entering winter with significantly below-average gas inventory levels.

European gas inventories stood at 61.11% of capacity, compared to 73.63% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 78.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

However, forecasts for an exceptionally strong El Nino are expected to curb European natural gas demand, with winter temperatures projected to average about 2 degrees Celsius above historical norms, according to a report by Rystad Energy.

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