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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Plummet After Iran Strike Pause Eases Supply Risk Concerns

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European natural gas futures fell sharply in after-hours trading Monday, retreating from a four-month high as markets reacted to a pause after nearly two weeks of US military strikes against Iran and a renewed focus on diplomacy.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract dropped 8.934% to 57.895 ($65.90) per megawatt-hour, while the front-month UK NBP contract declined 9.344% to 139.710 pence ($1.86) per therm.

US President Donald Trump has temporarily halted further military strikes against Iran, saying the pause would provide "space" for negotiations. Trump said the US remained engaged in talks with Tehran but warned that military action could resume if discussions failed.

The market pullback came despite continued concerns over Europe's tight gas supply position. Gas storage levels across the region remained below historical norms, with inventories at 55.35% of capacity compared with 66.47% at the same time last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks were also well below the five-year average of 71.2% for the period, data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy showed.

However, high prices contributed to reduced imports. LNG deliveries fell to their lowest weekly level since 2021, totaling 1.0 million metric tons across 22 cargoes, extending a weak summer demand trend, Vortexa said in a Monday note. The region's 28-day average LNG import rate was around 30% below year-earlier levels.

However, it said shifting global price dynamics could attract additional LNG supplies later in the year. The Atlantic basin arbitrage has turned more favorable for Europe heading into the shoulder season and winter, potentially encouraging increased cargo flows from September onward.

In the meantime, regional LNG arrivals remained uneven. France received no LNG cargoes during the week for the first time since March 2023, as prompt TTF prices traded above France's PEG hub, reducing incentives for deliveries. Belgium also recorded its first cargo-free week in a year. Germany bucked the broader trend, with LNG imports rising 10% above their four-week average.

Italy's LNG imports held steady at 0.3 million metric tons despite a suspension of gas send-out operations at the Ravenna floating storage and regasification unit since July 19.

European importers compete for cargoes with Asian buyers. The Asian price, Trading Economics said, rose 43% over the past month and is up by more than 85% over this time last year.

Vortexa assessed Northwest European LNG prices at $20.30/MMBtu, while Trading Economics put the JKM price at $22/MMBtu.

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Correction: US Natural Gas Prices Post Another Weekly Decline on Bearish Storage Build, Weak LNG Feedgas Flows

(Corrects price direction in the 2nd paragraph.)US natural gas prices ended another week in the red, pressured by a larger-than-expected injection into storage and lower liquefied natural gas feedgas flows.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract closed the week at $2.883 per million British thermal unit, down from $2.916/MMBtu on July 17.Natural gas spot prices rose $0.15/MMBtu to $2.95/MMBtu during the week ended July 22, from $2.80/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.Despite warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country for the second week in a row, total natural gas demand dipped during the week by 0.6 billion cubic feet per day, or 1%, even as gas output remained unchanged at 110.8 Bcf/d during the week.Prices were mixed across most regional hubs, ranging from a $0.54/MMBtu decrease at Algonquin Citygate, which primarily serves the Boston area, to a $0.71/MMBtu increase at the SoCal Border.Western parts of the country reported higher natural gas consumption overall, by 10%, largely due to the heatwave over the past week, according to LSEG data.Total demand was also impaired by low US LNG feedgas flows during the week, which averaged 17.4 Bcf/d, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.41 Bcf/d, and significantly below the recent peak of 20 Bcf/d reported earlier this year.This was primarily due to the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas entering into planned maintenance starting July 10, and set to last until late August.The net injection into storage for the week ended July 17 was 32 Bcf, down from last week's 41 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,056 Bcf, according to EIA data.Storage injections were above forecasts, which had expected a net injection of 29 Bcf. This was also above the prior year's 23 Bcf net injection and the five-year average for this period of 30 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.The East and Midwest regions reported net injections of 17 Bcf, while South Central and Nonsalt reported 2 Bcf and 9 Bcf, respectively.Inventories remained above the five-year average across most regions, with the highest surpluses recorded in the Mountain and Pacific regions at 19% and 6% above their prior-year levels.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, this week's storage figures imply "that market fundamentals tightened by nearly 1.5 Bcf per day from the previous week," which it attributed to warmer temperatures and weaker wind power generation during the report period.Weather forecasts continued to point toward above-normal temperatures across most of the country from July 31 through August 06, according to the National Weather Service, leading to elevated space-cooling demand and gas-fired power burn.A total of 34 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, unchanged from last week, with a combined capacity of 126 Bcf, down 5 Bcf from the prior week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $19.63/MMBtu for the week ended July 22, $2.39/MMBtu higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $21.05/MMBtu, about $4.43/MMBtu above the prior week.The US gas rig count increased by one from 126 the previous week to 127 in the week ending July 24, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 122 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, increased by 5 to 791 from 786 the previous week.

$BKR
Commodities

US Natural Gas Prices Post Another Weekly Decline on Bearish Storage Build, Weak LNG Feedgas Flows

US natural gas prices ended another week in the red, pressured by a larger-than-expected injection into storage and lower liquefied natural gas feedgas flows.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract closed the week at $2.883 per million British thermal unit, after falling as low as $2.858/MMBtu last Thursday.Natural gas spot prices rose $0.15/MMBtu to $2.95/MMBtu during the week ended July 22, from $2.80/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.Despite warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country for the second week in a row, total natural gas demand dipped during the week by 0.6 billion cubic feet per day, or 1%, even as gas output remained unchanged at 110.8 Bcf/d during the week.Prices were mixed across most regional hubs, ranging from a $0.54/MMBtu decrease at Algonquin Citygate, which primarily serves the Boston area, to a $0.71/MMBtu increase at the SoCal Border.Western parts of the country reported higher natural gas consumption overall, by 10%, largely due to the heatwave over the past week, according to LSEG data.Total demand was also impaired by low US LNG feedgas flows during the week, which averaged 17.4 Bcf/d, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.41 Bcf/d, and significantly below the recent peak of 20 Bcf/d reported earlier this year.This was primarily due to the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas entering into planned maintenance starting July 10, and set to last until late August.The net injection into storage for the week ended July 17 was 32 Bcf, down from last week's 41 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,056 Bcf, according to EIA data.Storage injections were above forecasts, which had expected a net injection of 29 Bcf. This was also above the prior year's 23 Bcf net injection and the five-year average for this period of 30 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.The East and Midwest regions reported net injections of 17 Bcf, while South Central and Nonsalt reported 2 Bcf and 9 Bcf, respectively.Inventories remained above the five-year average across most regions, with the highest surpluses recorded in the Mountain and Pacific regions at 19% and 6% above their prior-year levels.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, this week's storage figures imply "that market fundamentals tightened by nearly 1.5 Bcf per day from the previous week," which it attributed to warmer temperatures and weaker wind power generation during the report period.Weather forecasts continued to point toward above-normal temperatures across most of the country from July 31 through August 06, according to the National Weather Service, leading to elevated space-cooling demand and gas-fired power burn.A total of 34 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, unchanged from last week, with a combined capacity of 126 Bcf, down 5 Bcf from the prior week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $19.63/MMBtu for the week ended July 22, $2.39/MMBtu higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $21.05/MMBtu, about $4.43/MMBtu above the prior week.The US gas rig count increased by one from 126 the previous week to 127 in the week ending July 24, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 122 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, increased by 5 to 791 from 786 the previous week.

$BKR
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Down Amid Abundant Supply

US natural gas futures fell in after-hours trade on Friday as inventories remained comfortably above historical norms and updated weather forecasts turned modestly milder, easing expectations for near-term cooling demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract fell 1.13% to $2.883 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract slipped 0.27% to $2.908/MMBtu.The US Energy Information Administration reported a 32 billion cubic feet injection into storage for the latest reporting week, broadly in line with market expectations. Total inventories now stand 183 Bcf, or 6.4%, above the five-year average.Weather also weighed on sentiment. Commodity Weather Group continues to forecast above-normal temperatures across the interior West through Aug. 7, although the latest outlook is cooler than previously expected, reducing projected cooling demand.Total Lower 48 natural gas demand was 77.6 Bcf/d on Friday, down 3 Bcf from Thursday and 6.5% lower than a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. Celsius Energy said average daily power burn for the week ended July 22 rose to 46.4 Bcf/d, up 1.9 Bcf/d from the corresponding week last year.LNG feedgas flows strengthened Friday to nearly 18 Bcf/d, aided by higher nominations at Freeport LNG, which increased to 1.08 Bcf/d. Aegis Hedging said forward LNG feedgas demand is expected to average around 18.7 Bcf/d next week, with additional upside from activity at Golden Pass LNG and Corpus Christi.On the supply side, production remained robust. Trading Economics said Lower 48 dry gas output has averaged 110.4 Bcf/d so far in July, up from 110.0 Bcf/d in June. BNEF data showed daily production reached 111.6 Bcf/d on Friday, up 0.7 Bcf/d from the previous day and 2.9% higher than a year earlier.