FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Correction: US Natural Gas Prices Post Another Weekly Decline on Bearish Storage Build, Weak LNG Feedgas Flows

By

(Corrects price direction in the 2nd paragraph.)

US natural gas prices ended another week in the red, pressured by a larger-than-expected injection into storage and lower liquefied natural gas feedgas flows.

In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract closed the week at $2.883 per million British thermal unit, down from $2.916/MMBtu on July 17.

Natural gas spot prices rose $0.15/MMBtu to $2.95/MMBtu during the week ended July 22, from $2.80/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.

Despite warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country for the second week in a row, total natural gas demand dipped during the week by 0.6 billion cubic feet per day, or 1%, even as gas output remained unchanged at 110.8 Bcf/d during the week.

Prices were mixed across most regional hubs, ranging from a $0.54/MMBtu decrease at Algonquin Citygate, which primarily serves the Boston area, to a $0.71/MMBtu increase at the SoCal Border.

Western parts of the country reported higher natural gas consumption overall, by 10%, largely due to the heatwave over the past week, according to LSEG data.

Total demand was also impaired by low US LNG feedgas flows during the week, which averaged 17.4 Bcf/d, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.41 Bcf/d, and significantly below the recent peak of 20 Bcf/d reported earlier this year.

This was primarily due to the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas entering into planned maintenance starting July 10, and set to last until late August.

The net injection into storage for the week ended July 17 was 32 Bcf, down from last week's 41 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,056 Bcf, according to EIA data.

Storage injections were above forecasts, which had expected a net injection of 29 Bcf. This was also above the prior year's 23 Bcf net injection and the five-year average for this period of 30 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com.

The East and Midwest regions reported net injections of 17 Bcf, while South Central and Nonsalt reported 2 Bcf and 9 Bcf, respectively.

Inventories remained above the five-year average across most regions, with the highest surpluses recorded in the Mountain and Pacific regions at 19% and 6% above their prior-year levels.

According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, this week's storage figures imply "that market fundamentals tightened by nearly 1.5 Bcf per day from the previous week," which it attributed to warmer temperatures and weaker wind power generation during the report period.

Weather forecasts continued to point toward above-normal temperatures across most of the country from July 31 through August 06, according to the National Weather Service, leading to elevated space-cooling demand and gas-fired power burn.

A total of 34 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, unchanged from last week, with a combined capacity of 126 Bcf, down 5 Bcf from the prior week.

In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $19.63/MMBtu for the week ended July 22, $2.39/MMBtu higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $21.05/MMBtu, about $4.43/MMBtu above the prior week.

The US gas rig count increased by one from 126 the previous week to 127 in the week ending July 24, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 122 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.

The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, increased by 5 to 791 from 786 the previous week.

Related Articles

Commodities

Trump Says 220 Organizations Join Ratepayer Pledge to Shield Consumers From AI Power Costs

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that over 220 organizations have joined the Ratepayer Protection Pledge to keep AI-related electricity costs off consumers.Trump said that after he introduced the plan a few months ago, "more than 220 utilities, tech companies, state governments, and other partners have signed our Ratepayer Protection Pledge."The US President said rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence should not burden households, with large technology companies instead funding the required power infrastructure."America's largest tech companies have formally committed to fund or build all energy infrastructure required to meet the demand they are placing on the grid," Trump added.Trump said the administration will let technology companies build their own power plants for data centers. He added the facilities will feed excess electricity into the grid, "... so we'll actually end up with more electricity," he said.Trump said the pledge now helps keep electricity prices in check across utilities responsible for about 80% of US power distribution. "We have kept rates down, way down," he said.American Electric Power estimates its data center contracts will generate as much as $16 billion in consumer cost offsets, Trump said, citing the agreements as evidence that technology investments can reduce costs for households.Trump said several new power plants will begin operating over the next two years, expanding electricity supplies to meet growing demand from artificial intelligence and other industries.He also highlighted commitments from utilities participating in the initiative, saying Georgia Power has frozen residential base rates through 2029, which he cited as an example of protecting consumers from higher electricity bills."AI is probably the biggest thing anybody's ever seen, and whoever wins that race is probably going to win," Trump said, arguing the US must expand power generation to stay ahead of China.Trump criticized regions facing recurring brownouts and blackouts, saying they cannot support surging electricity demand.He said the Ratepayer Protection Pledge will expand generating capacity while requiring major technology companies to finance their own energy needs.

Commodities

Market Chatter: US Venezuelan Crude Imports Hit Highest Since 2012

US refiners are importing the most Venezuelan crude in almost a decade, with July imports expected to average about 804,000 barrels per day, the highest since 2017, after the US lifted sanctions earlier this year, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.Refiners along the US Gulf Coast are increasing purchases of Venezuelan crude as a hedge against potential Canadian oil sands supply disruptions, as hot and dry weather raises the risk of wildfires. Canadian heavy crude is similar in quality to Venezuelan grades.US refiners are benefiting from some of the strongest profit margins in years, supported by relatively low fuel inventories and geopolitical supply disruptions. Last week, the US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread reached its highest level since at least 2012.Growing US demand has also strengthened the Gulf Coast market for Venezuelan crude. Discounts for the heavy grade have narrowed to about $10 per barrel below ICE Brent from roughly $15/bbl in May, offsetting weaker Chinese demand, which has fallen significantly this year.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Commodities

Ovintiv Q2 Production Edges Lower, Lifts Full-Year Output Outlook

Ovintiv (OVV) reported Q2 earnings Thursday, showing total production of 614,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 615,300 boe/d a year earlier.Oil production dropped to 123,000 b/d for the quarter ended June 30, down from 142,000 b/d a year earlier, the company said.Natural gas production rose to 1,959 million cubic feet per day for the quarter ended June 30, up from 1,851 MMcf/d in the year-ago period.Oil and plant condensate production edged down to 205,800 b/d, compared with 211,200 b/d.Plant condensate output increased to 82,800 b/d, up from 69,200 b/d for the same quarter last year, while other natural gas liquids production declined to 82,400 b/d, down from 95,500 b/d a year earlier.Total liquids production fell to 288,200 b/d from 306,700 b/d in the year-ago quarter, according to the company.Ovintiv raised its full-year 2026 production outlook to 630,000 boe/d to 645,000 boe/d while keeping planned capital investment unchanged at $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion.The full year guidance includes 210,000 b/d to 212,000 b/d of oil and condensate, 83,000 b/d to 85,000 b/d of natural gas liquids and 2.025 Bcf/d to 2.075 Bcf/d of natural gas.In the Permian, Ovintiv produced 231,000 boe/d in Q2, with liquids accounting for 78% of volumes, and turned 38 net wells in line. The company plans to bring 125 to 135 net wells online.Montney production averaged 374,000 boe/d in the second quarter, with liquids making up 27% of output, while the company turned 40 net wells in line. Ovintiv plans to bring 130 to 140 net wells online this year.

$OVV