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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Lower Despite Lingering Hormuz Tensions, Supply Constraints

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European natural gas futures edged lower on Wednesday, while hovering near its four-year high, as gas supply concerns continued to persist ahead of the winter heating season.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures fell 0.38% to 79.805 euros ($92.12) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures dropped 0.25% to 197.920 British pence ($2.67) per therm.

On Tuesday, a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an "unknown projectile," according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations.

Oman's Maritime Security Center said that it was involved in towing operations of the Panama-flagged oil tanker Elgaia, which had caught fire following the attack, with two crew members missing. The Royal Navy of Oman said that it evacuated 23 crew members, as reported by.

Traffic along the strategically crucial strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, stood at just 16 transits on Tuesday, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that the prospect of resumption in Qatar gas flows was slim "for the foreseeable future." This, he said, was prompting several countries, including Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh, to vie for long-term LNG contracts with the US.

This comes at a time when European gas inventories remain at historic lows, at just 68.49%, significantly below the corresponding period a year ago, at 80.60%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 84.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Rises as Saudi Pipeline Outage, Russia Attacks Raise Supply Risks

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Tuesday as an ongoing outage on Saudi Arabia's critical East-West pipeline and persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure heightened global supply fears.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures rallied 4.03% to $105.94 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced 2.% to $108.68/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said that October WTI trades at $103.31/bbl, up $1.92 or 1.9%, as uncertainty surrounding Saudi Arabia's damaged East-West Pipeline sustains a substantial supply premium.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reportedly said that Saudi Arabia's critical East-West crude oil pipeline will start operating again "very soon" after Iran-backed attacks forced its closure.Saudi Arabia has halted oil loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the country has informed European customers that some late-September crude cargoes would be canceled, according to media reports.The Gulf state issued security alerts over a range of territory, including Mecca and Jeddah, on Tuesday. The Saudi Arabian Civil Defense later lifted the alerts, saying the danger had passed in Jeddah, Abha, Jazan, AlUla and Taif amid an uptick in attacks by the Houthis.The latest strikes followed a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline on Friday that forced the Gulf state to shut the vital export route.Kpler strategists said that damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has shifted the oil market's focus to export logistics, with the key question now being how quickly the Gulf state can restore flows and reroute crude.Kpler's base case assumes the East-West Pipeline, dubbed Petroline, will return at about 50% of its pre-attack capacity after repairs that could take as long as six weeks. The consultancy said that could reduce exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu by about 2.5 million to 2.7 million barrels per day.Meanwhile, Ukraine said on Tuesday it hit the Syzran refinery in Russia's Volga region overnight, as Kyiv's attacks on refineries in Russia have helped drive diesel prices to record highs.The attacks came after the two sides welcomed a potential energy truce floated by President Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed that his country's partners secure an agreement with Russia to stop the destruction of critical infrastructure.Dan Bunkering strategists said that Ukrainian attacks have reduced Russian refinery output and product availability, and there is little reason to assume this pressure will disappear.On the supply front, ING strategists said growing tightness in diesel markets, including in the US, has raised speculation about possible US export controls on crude oil and refined products.ING strategists said that the Trump administration has pushed back against the idea, arguing that an export ban would do little to bring down prices.Though restricting refined-product exports could provide some near-term price relief, the analysts said it would also pressure refinery margins and could eventually prompt refiners to cut processing rates, tightening supplies and pushing prices higher over the longer term.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Vance Says US-Iran War Could End After Midterms as Conflict Enters New Phase

The US conflict with Iran could enter a much different phase in a couple of months, Vice President J D Vance told the New York Post Tuesday, while agreeing that the war could end after the midterms.Vance said Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz would continue to weaken ahead of the election, with the key energy route now carrying over 50% of normal traffic.He said the timeline remains uncertain but noted that President Donald Trump will decide when the conflict starts and ends.Vance also acknowledged public impatience over the prolonged conflict, while saying the US currently has no aggressive operations underway against Iran. Iranian forces have instead occasionally fired on commercial shipping, although Vance said those attacks have generally failed to hit their targets.The White House did not immediately reply to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Saudi Arabia Cancels September Crude Cargoes, Suspends Yanbu Loadings

Saudi Arabia has canceled some September crude cargoes to European customers and suspended Yanbu loadings after drone attacks damaged its East-West pipeline, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing traders and shipping sources.The pipeline shutdown followed attacks that Riyadh attributed to Iraqi militias, while European buyers, including Poland, moved to secure alternative crude supplies.Physical oil prices in Europe rose above $130 per barrel Tuesday as buyers sought alternatives to disrupted Middle East supplies amid intensifying regional conflict. North Sea Forties crude surged to $136.75/bbl, putting it within reach of the $147.37 record set April 13, the report added, citing LSEG data.The loss of Red Sea flows could push Saudi Arabia to use dark shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf producers currently moving 7 million barrels per day to 9 million b/d, the report said.Saudi Aramco did not immediately reply to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)