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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Lower After Trump Lifts Naval Blockade Against Iran

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European natural gas futures edged lower on Tuesday, as progress in US-Iran peace talks helped ease tensions and potential supply risks, following US President Donald Trump's lifting of the naval blockade against Tehran.

The Dutch TTF front-month contract edged lower by 0.82% to 41.545 euros ($47.33) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract lost 0.80% to trade at 99.140 pence ($1.31) per therm.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump said that he had agreed to let the Strait of Hormuz remain open "with no further Naval Blockade" against the country.

This comes amid progress in the peace deal between the US and Iran, according to a joint statement released by mediators Qatar and Pakistan, with both sides agreeing "to the establishment of a High Level Committee" that will oversee mediation efforts going forward.

US Vice President JD Vance echoed similar views, noting that "very good progress" was being made in discussions held with Tehran.

Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, saw 12 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

This marks a decline from earlier this week, when as many as 25 vessels made the transit, and is significantly below the peacetime average of 138 vessels per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.

Complications continued to emerge, with Qatar's Ras Laffan facility suffering an explosion that left 13 dead and 66 injured. The company, however, noted that this was unlikely to impact LNG exports from the facility.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that Asian customers were increasingly entering the spot markets, including China, adding to competitive pressures for Europe, as the bloc remains focused on refilling depleted gas inventories.

European gas inventories remained depleted at 46.72% of capacity, down from 55.81% in the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 61.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

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