FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher on Escalating US-Iran Conflict, Weak EU Storage Levels

By

European natural gas futures edged higher on Thursday as escalating hostilities between the US and Iran fueled concerns over LNG supplies and energy shipments through the Middle East.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.19% to 62.655 euros ($71.55) per megawatt-hour, while the front-month UK NBP contract gained 0.05% to 151.500 British pence ($2.03) per therm.

On Wednesday, in a post on X, US Central Command said that it had completed another round of strikes against Iran, for the 12th consecutive day, targeting the country's military infrastructure, aimed at impairing its ability to target commercial vessels along the Strait of Hormuz.

This comes following US President Donald Trump's latest warning that US forces would now strike Iran's power plants and bridges each time Tehran targets commercial traffic in the Hormuz.

Meanwhile, traffic along the strategically crucial Strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, held steady with 15 transits on Wednesday, despite mounting tensions, according to data from ShipFinder.

Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, warned that Europe was "running out of time to replenish its gas reserves ahead of next winter," as competition for LNG cargoes intensifies, especially from Asian buyers amid mounting global supply constraints.

Hynes also noted that the hopes of Qatari supplies resuming had begun to fade, with the country now offering sub-charters for its LNG tankers near the US coast, indicating that it was in no hurry to scale its output back to normal.

This comes at a time when European gas inventories remain depleted, at just 54.38% of capacity, compared to 65.36% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 70%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Gain Over 2.5% on Hotter Late-July Forecast

US natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts boosted sentiment and traders positioned ahead of Thursday's weekly storage report.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 2.62% to $2.940 per million British thermal units.Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted prices are now flat to modestly higher than a week ago, although they remain well below levels seen a month earlier.The Wednesday advance was largely driven by updated weather forecasts. Barchart, citing Commodity Weather Group data, said forecasts for late July shifted hotter across the central US, while Pinebrook Energy Advisors said persistent heat across Texas and the US Southwest continued to support cooling demand.However, Energy Aspects said 2026 is on track to record the lowest cooling degree day-to-billion cubic feet ratio since 2020, suggesting less natural gas is being consumed for air conditioning despite some elevated temperatures.Gains were capped by Tropical Storm Bertha, which is forecast to track along the US Gulf Coast and much of the US LNG infrastructure over the next two days.The storm could disrupt LNG export infrastructure or shipping activity, potentially leaving gas originally destined for overseas markets in the domestic supply system.Market participants are also awaiting the US Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report due on Thursday.Wall Street Journal analysts expect a 34 Bcf storage injection for the week ended July 17, down from a 41 Bcf build the previous week but still slightly above the five-year average injection of 30 Bcf.On the demand side, Aegis Hedging said US power-sector gas consumption eased to 49.3 Bcf on Wednesday after exceeding 50 Bcf per day for three consecutive sessions earlier this week. Total demand on Wednesday averaged 80.6 Bcf/d, up 6.3% on the year.LNG export feedgas flows reached 17.9 Bcf/d, up 7.9% from the previous week, well below capacity as Freeport LNG continues maintenance through August.The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said Wednesday that warm weather around the globe, combined with supply disruptions in the Middle East, has boosted export prices.It said the Asian benchmark LNG price for September delivery has climbed above $19/MMBtu, more than double market expectations at the start of the year, underscoring robust global demand and continued tightness in international gas markets.

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Nears 3% as Strait of Hormuz Risks Support Prices

Crude futures hovered near 3% in after-hours trading on Wednesday as escalating US-Iran hostilities stoked fears of disruptions across key Middle Eastern energy supply routes, while threats to shipping by Yemen's Houthis further boosted prices.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.54% to $86.48 per barrel, while Brent futures climbed by 2.96% to $93.70/bbl.The US Central Command responded to a claim by Iran's military forces that it controlled the Strait of Hormuz, saying the "international waterway remains open for transit.""Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom posted on X on Wednesday.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement that said that entry and exit through the Hormuz remained "clear and under our definite control", while warning that alternative routes were "unsafe and dangerous," according to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency associated with the IRGC.Centcom reiterated its stance that the strait remained open to shipping. "The international waterway remains open for transit regardless of IRGC threats and attacks. Commercial vessels continue to use the strait with US military support," Centcom posted.It noted that US military forces helped over 900 ships transit the strait since early May. As of Wednesday, Centcom said it redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled one.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said the widening geographic scope of supply disruptions suggests oil prices are being driven by global transportation risks, leaving the market vulnerable to further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 411.7 mmbbls in the week ended July 17, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.President Trump on Wednesday vowed to blow up an Iranian bridge or power plant, including those in the country's capital city of Tehran, every time Iran shoots at a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz."From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by missile, rocket, drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.Saxo Bank strategists said the US-Iran conflict entered an 11th day, with Washington and Tehran exchanging strikes and Trump downplaying the prospect of near-term talks, while vowing to respond if the Houthis disrupt Red Sea shipping.On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said that Iran was not serious about reaching a deal to end the fighting, while vowing to continue to protect shipping via the Strait.Speaking at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in the Philippines, Rubio said the US remains willing to negotiate an end to the Middle East conflict.The US remains open and willing to engage in positive, constructive negotiations and talks so long as the commitments that are made are kept, Rubio said.US Central Command said that American forces carried out the eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran on Tuesday, targeting Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.Commercial shipping activity across key Middle East waterways remains subdued, with 22 confirmed transits through the Hormuz and 73 through Bab el Mandeb, as operators continue to exercise caution amid heightened regional security risks.Confirmed maritime attacks continue around the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler said in a post on X, noting that this reinforced concerns that uncertainty across both regional chokepoints could reshape routing decisions.This could also increase freight costs and sustain higher geopolitical risk premiums for energy markets, Kpler said.

Oil & Energy

US Centcom Rejects Iran's Strait of Hormuz Control Claim as Shipping Stays Subdued

The US Central Command responded to a claim by Iran's military forces that it controlled the Strait of Hormuz, saying the "international waterway remains open for transit.""Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom posted on X.Iran on Wednesday warned commercial vessels against using alternative routes in the Strait of Hormuz, as maritime traffic through the strategic waterway remained constrained and tensions intensified amid ongoing US strikes against Iranian targets.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement that said that entry and exit through the Hormuz remained "clear and under our definite control", while warning that alternative routes were "unsafe and dangerous," according to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency associated with the IRGC.The IRGC said that vessels using alternative routes could face "heavy and irreparable consequences," Tasnim reported.Centcom's response reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz was open for shipping. "The international waterway remains open for transit regardless of IRGC threats and attacks. Commercial vessels continue to use the strait with US military support," Centcom posted.It noted that US military forces helped over 900 ships transit the strait since early May. As of Wednesday, Centcom said it redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled one.US Centcom alleged that Iran has attacked over 30 vessels transiting the Hormuz over the past three months.Meanwhile, shipping activity via the Strait remains below normal levels, with operators showing increased caution amid escalating tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and the US.MarineTraffic data show that traffic through the strategic waterway remained subdued on Tuesday, with nine confirmed crossings recorded.Activity was slightly weighted toward vessels entering the Middle East Gulf, with five "Entered" or inbound MEG movements and four "Exited" or outbound MEG movements, according to MarineTraffic.Route behavior was concentrated near the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, which accounted for four of the total nine transits on Tuesday.The Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme, designated by the International Maritime Organization, accounted for three crossings, while one crossed the Omani Territorial Waters Passage and one was "Route Undetermined," MarineTraffic data revealed.Separately, the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden recorded a total of 29 crossings on Tuesday, MarineTraffic said."Flows were broadly balanced, with 18 vessels entering the Red Sea and 11 exiting," according to MarineTraffic.MarineTraffic data show that four verified vessel U-turns around the Gulf of Aden or Bab el-Mandeb Strait, highlighting growing operator caution following recent security threats.The data indicates that while commercial shipping continues, operators are adjusting routes and behavior in response to rising security concerns.Disruption risk is extending beyond the Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia's alternative crude export route through the Red Sea facing fresh pressure from heightened security threats.Kpler strategists said that Saudi Arabia has been routing around 3.5 million barrels per day of crude exports through Yanbu since April as constraints on transit through the Hormuz increased.The shift has made the Bab el-Mandeb corridor increasingly important for Saudi crude flows, exposing the Gulf state's export bypass to risks from Houthi threats targeting Saudi-linked shipping.The latest data show that tanker operators have begun adjusting routes in response to the threats, increasing voyage uncertainty and raising the possibility of logistical bottlenecks.The immediate concern is not a disruption to Saudi Arabia's production, but potential impacts on shipping efficiency, freight costs and global crude trade flows.Kpler said that a wider escalation affecting the country's refining or export infrastructure could have a more significant impact on international oil markets.On Tuesday, the US military carried out the eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.The IMO's daily Strait of Hormuz incident tracker showed one confirmed attack so far this week. This brings the total number of confirmed maritime security incidents in the region to 61 as of Monday.The IMO tracker provides a daily log of verified strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, with the earliest incident recorded on March 1.