With Asian buyers ramping up purchases of LNG cargoes from the Atlantic basin due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, demand for longer-haul shipping has been rising and freight prices with them, according to a report by Vortexa.
This comes amid warmer-than-normal weather across Asia and a predicted hot summer ahead, raising demand for gas to produce power for air conditioning. At the same time Europe has not been refilling its gas reserves quickly for next winter, which would otherwise add additional pressure on global supplies.
Global LNG fleet tonne-mile demand has risen, and Vortexa sees room for further upside, with rates still below Q4 2025 levels.
Spot LNG charter rates, which surged after the conflict began, have recently softened but remain elevated, indicating that the market is not facing a physical shortage of vessels.
Instead, traders are reserving shipping capacity to have the option to move cargoes, the report said, in anticipation of stronger Asian demand, which is supporting spot LNG charter rates.
Market players are increasingly prioritizing their ability to deliver cargoes into premium markets over vessel optimization, the report said.
For instance, QatarEnergy is not "aggressively" subletting its idle vessels despite the higher charter rates, owing to the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the Iran war.
If the blockade in the Hormuz is lifted, the company will be expected to resume production and deliveries right away and before a current estimate of resumption by August after Iranian strikes on the major Ras Laffan LNG production facility.
Vortexa said structural oversupply in LNG shipping is expected to persist through the remainder of the decade as vessel deliveries outpace growth in liquefaction supply capacity.