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Digitalization, AI Could Generate $500 Billion Value for Upstream Players, Rystad Energy Says

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Oil exploration and production companies could capture $500 billion in cumulative value over the next five years through digitalization and the use of artificial intelligence, Rystad Energy said Thursday.

Value creation opportunities include cost reductions from improved operational efficiency, production increases from higher uptime and recovery, and shortened development timelines, according to the report.

As expected returns grow over time, the research firm noted that E&Ps currently investing in digital and AI may capture an additional value of around $80 billion per year in 2030, compared with 2025. Value creation is projected to reach $132 billion in 2030 and $178 billion in 2035, based on Rystad's base case.

"The trajectory is not linear," it said. "Digital value creation follows a compounding curve as adoption increases and organizational capabilities mature."

Norway's Equinor (EQNR), for example, has generated around $200 million in AI-related savings between 2021 and 2024, and about $130 million in 2025 alone.

Abu Dhabi National Oil, in 2023, has reported an AI-driven value of $500 million in 2023, with plans to boost this further to $1 billion per year, by allocating $1.5 billion in digital capital expenditure.

Operators have extensively utilized digital tools in exploration and reservoir development, and are now rapidly deploying new AI systems in operations and maintenance to reduce related costs.

Rystad said "subsurface workflows hold the largest untapped value potential, especially from getting more volumes out of the ground and reducing drilling costs."

In the US, where shale operators are facing physical drilling limits, digitalization could improve performance of onshore wells by 10%, and could generate up to 50% in savings for deep-water wells, according to the analysis.

"Capturing the value at stake requires investment in digital tools, infrastructure, and integration," the research firm said, noting that E&Ps have spent around $25 billion last year on digital and AI purchases.

It estimates that the market for providing these tools and services will exceed $35 billion by 2030 and approach the $50 billion mark by 2035.

As AI can further accelerate value creation, Rystad projects in its "accelerated AI scenario" that digital initiatives will generate as much as $150 billion in value in 2030, "with potential to further grow past $300 billion by 2035."

This scenario will require an additional $50 billion of spending in 2030 and around $80 billion in 2035, the report said.

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