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Dangote Refinery Fuels Nigeria's Rise as Refined Products Exporter, EIA Says

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Nigeria's Dangote refinery is reshaping the country's petroleum trade, driving an increase in refined-product exports while reducing its reliance on imports, the US Energy Information Administration strategists said in a note on Monday.

The EIA analysts said that seaborne petroleum product shipments from Nigeria averaged 561,000 barrels per day in Q2, over seven times the 79,000 b/d average recorded in 2023. Exports accounted for about 350,000 b/d of those shipments, compared with 46,000 b/d in 2023.

The surge highlights the growing importance of Nigeria as a supplier to international fuel markets at a time when disruptions elsewhere, including constraints on product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, have tightened supplies.

The EIA said that the Dangote refinery, which began commercial operations in January 2024, is Africa's largest refinery and the world's largest single-train refinery.

The refinery's nameplate capacity was initially 650,000 b/d and was increased to 700,000 b/d after maintenance was completed in February 2026.

Nigeria's refined-product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 b/d in Q2, up from 40,000 b/d in 2025 and just 15,000 b/d in 2023, the agency said.

Exports to other African countries also increased, reaching about 120,000 b/d in the quarter, compared with 89,000 b/d in 2025.

The shift marks a significant change for Nigeria, which for years relied heavily on imported fuels despite having substantial crude oil production.

Prior to Dangote commencing operations, the country's state-owned refineries had shipped less than 100,000 b/d of petroleum products by sea to domestic and international destinations.

Nigeria's petroleum product exports had already nearly quadrupled to 146,000 b/d in 2024, up from 46,000 b/d in 2023, after Dangote started production.

The EIA said that the range of products exported also broadened to include naphtha, jet fuel and kerosene, fuel oil and other refined products.

Meanwhile, the refinery's growing output is also changing Nigeria's domestic fuel balance.

Intra-Nigerian seaborne shipments rose to 211,000 b/d in Q2 from 81,000 b/d in 2025 and 33,000 b/d in 2023, allowing refined products to be moved between Nigerian ports rather than relying as heavily on overseas supplies.

The EIA said seaborne imports of petroleum products fell to less than 130,000 b/d in Q2, from nearly 400,000 b/d in 2023.

Nigeria's dependence on imported petroleum products had been driven largely by the prolonged shutdown and rehabilitation of its state-owned refineries.

Between 2020 and 2024, petroleum product imports averaged about 376,000 b/d, with gasoline and blending components, as well as diesel and gasoil, accounting for the bulk of the volume.

Higher refinery runs at Dangote helped Nigeria place additional products into global markets as supplies from other regions were constrained, the EIA said.

Dangote has also outlined plans to further expand the facility, including a second 750,000 b/d crude distillation unit by 2028.

The EIA said that if completed, the project would increase Nigeria's refining capacity and could further strengthen its position as a refined-products exporter.

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