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Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Sept. 16

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Retail sales rose by 1.2% in August and were up 1.4% excluding a 0.6% gain in auto sales, both well above expectations.

A 3.1% jump in gasoline station sales, a 2.6% rebound in nonstore retail sales and a 1.2% gain in food services and drinking place sales were the key factors, partially offset by sales declines for building materials and at department stores.

Control group retail sales, which exclude autos, gas, building materials, and food services, rose by 1.4% after a 0.4% drop in July.

Import prices rose by 0.7% in August after a 0.3% decline and were up 0.8% excluding a 0.1% gain in petroleum prices.

Export prices rose by 0.6% in August and were up 0.7% excluding a 0.5% gain in agricultural prices.

The New York Federal Reserve's monthly business leaders index, a measure of services conditions, fell to minus 8.7 in September from 0.5 in August, indicating a return to contraction. Other services data will be released over the coming weeks.

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell to 32 in September from 35 in August and was unchanged from a reading of 32 a year ago.

NAHB said that high mortgage rates, labor shortages and increasing costs continue to negatively impact builder sentiment.

Business inventories rose by 0.8% in July after a 0.1% gain in June. Business sales rose by 0.3% after a 1% decline, with increases at the factory and wholesale levels but a decline at the retail level.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 4.1% decline in mortgage applications in the week ended Sept. 11 after a 2.7% drop in the previous week. Refinancing activity and new home applications fell due to an increase in mortgage rates to their highest level since May 2025.

Total crude oil inventories fell by 1.0 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 11, with commercial oil inventories down 600,000 barrels and stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 400,000 million barrels. Gasoline inventories and distillate inventories both increased last week.

The Q3 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 5.1% gain, up from the previous estimate of a 4.4% gain.

What else is happening in International?

International

New Zealand Parliament Approves India Free Trade Agreement

New Zealand's Parliament passed legislation for a free trade agreement with India by a 93-29 vote, Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said in a statement on Wednesday.The agreement will make 57% of New Zealand's exports to India duty-free from day one, with tariffs eliminated or significantly reduced on 95% of exports once fully implemented.The FTA is expected to enter into force this year after both countries complete their respective ratification procedures, the statement said.

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International

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index Narrows in August

The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index narrowed to negative 0.09% in August from negative 0.17% in July, according to a report on Wednesday.The index indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future.Momentum has continued to improve and is only slightly below trend heading into later in the year and early 2027, Westpac Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting Matthew Hassan said.The June quarter national accounts showed the Australian economy holding up better than expected amid a global energy shock and higher interest rates, with growth stabilizing at a slow pace.Westpac now expects annual growth to slow 1.5% by the end of the year, up from its previous forecast of 1%, Hassan said.The growth pulse remains soft, with the leading index growth rate averaging negative 0.17% since the start of the year, which is milder than the negative 0.46% average during the cost-of-living crisis from 2022 to 2024.Rising fuel prices and potential interest rate hikes seem to be negatively affecting consumer sentiment, with indications that the downturn in established housing markets is also having an impact. These effects might worsen in the near term and could extend to other components.

ASX 200
International

Further Widening of New Zealand's Current Account Deficit to Be Expected in the Wake of Higher Costs for Imported Energy, Other Products, Westpac Says

Further widening of New Zealand's current account deficit can be expected in coming quarters as the full impact of higher costs for imported energy and related products feeds into the data, Westpac said in a Wednesday report.New Zealand recorded a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of NZ$3.8 billion in the June quarter, narrowing NZ$666 million from the previous quarter. The current account deficit widened to 3.2% of GDP in the year to June, in line with expectations.For the second year in a row, the release of balance of payments data for the June quarter contained historical revisions to estimates of the current account deficit. The deficit for the year to March is now estimated at 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), rather than the 3.6% of GDP deficit that was estimated previously.The key revisions concerned primary income flows, with new estimates pointing to higher returns earned on New Zealand's investment abroad and lower returns paid on foreign investments in New Zealand.The revisions have no implications for the bank's estimate of June quarter GDP growth, which remains 0.2%.New Zealand's international investment position improved in the June quarter, reflecting favorable changes to offshore asset valuations, falling to NZ$178.3 billion, or 39% of GDP, from NZ$191.7 billion, or 42.5% of GDP, in the March quarter. The liability is mostly related to debt, with net external debt reaching 49.4% of GDP in the June quarter.

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