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Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 20

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The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 2.3% decline in mortgage applications in the week ended May 15 after a 1.7% increase in the previous week.

Refinancing activity and new home applications both fell due to higher mortgage rates.

Total crude oil inventories fell by 17.8 million barrels in the week ended May 15, with commercial oil inventories down 7.9 million barrels and stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 9.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined last week while distillate inventories increased.

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New Zealanders Expect Inflation to Rise to 5.6% Over Next Year, RBNZ Survey Shows

The mean one-year-ahead expected inflation in New Zealand was 5.6% in the June quarter, up from 5.2% in the previous quarter, while the perception of current inflation came in at 7.5%, according to a survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released on Wednesday.In the June quarter, the inflation rate is expected to rise to a mean of 4.9% in two years and 4% in five years, up from 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, in the March quarter.Meanwhile, nearly 41% of New Zealanders now expect higher house prices, compared with about 48% in the March quarter. The annual inflation rate for house prices is expected to clock in at a mean of 1.5% in a year and 5.9% in five years.

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International

United Nations Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast for Australian Economy as Energy Supply Shock Bites

The United Nations lowered its 2026 growth forecast for the Australian economy to 2% as the country's demand‐led recovery is now under pressure from the energy supply shock created by the Middle East conflict, according to the mid-year update of the body's World Economic Situation and Prospects report.A previous report in January forecast 2.2% growth for Australia, which continues to rely on imports of refined fuel products."In Australia, wage-driven inflationary pressures have led the Reserve Bank to resume monetary tightening in early 2026, adding a further drag on growth," the new report said.The UN also lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.7% previously.

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International

Market Chatter: Indian Airlines Seek Delay in Aviation Fuel Price Hike

Major Indian airlines have asked state-run oil refiners to halt jet fuel price increases for domestic flights until the Middle East conflict eases, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.The proposal was floated by domestic airlines, including Air India, IndiGo (NSE:INDIGO, BOM:539448), and SpiceJet (BOM:500285), the report said.They reportedly warned the government that raising fuel prices could lead to flight suspensions and broader business disruptions.State-owned refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation (NSE:IOC, BOM:530965), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (NSE:HINDPETRO, BOM:500104), and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (NSE:BPCL, BOM:500547) are currently considering the proposal, according to the report.India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has joined the discussions and may intervene directly, as it did in Aprl and May, the report added.Aviation fuel in India is deregulated and is fixed by the country's main oil marketing companies, which revise the prices each month.However, in April, to lessen the impact of the surge in global oil prices, the Indian government capped the most recent jet fuel price hike to 25% and asked the oil companies to keep them constant in May, Bloomberg added.A decision on the airlines' proposal is expected before June 1, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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