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Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for July 21

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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's services measure rose to 7.4 in July from minus 25.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a similar gain in the New York Fed's services measure.

State unemployment data for June showed that the unemployment rate fell in eight states and lower in two states.

Redbook reported that US same-store retail sales were up 7.8% year-over-year in the week ended July 18, slower than an 8.2% gain in the prior week. Sales of warm weather items and the start of back-to-school sales drove spending in the week.

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Rise in New Zealand Consumer Prices Sees Inflation Climb to Highest Level in Two Years, Westpac Says

New Zealand consumer prices increased by 1.5% in the June quarter, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 4.1%, up from 3.1% in the year to March and the highest level in two years, Westpac said in a report on Tuesday.The result was in line with Westpac's forecast, but slightly above the Reserve Bank's July forecast for 3.9% annual inflation.Much of the rise in inflation is attributed to increasing global oil prices since the start of the Middle East conflict, and while core inflation is softening, it remains above the Reserve Bank's 2% target midpoint, according to Satish Ranchhod, Westpac NZ senior economist.Oil prices have pulled back from their initial peak, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could keep them elevated for some time, with headline inflation anticipated to linger above 3% through the latter part of the year.While core inflation softening alleviates some concerns for the Reserve Bank, inflation remains high, leading to expectations of further rate hikes in September and December policy meetings, per the report.

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International

Australian Consumer Confidence Rise as Household Purchase Sentiment Improves

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International

New Zealand's June Quarter CPI Data Provides 'Mixed Signals' on Underlying Inflation, ANZ Says

The signal on underlying inflation in New Zealand's June quarter consumer price index (CPI) data was mixed and isn't likely to budge the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from its policy stance, with the trimmed mean and weighted median measures accelerating, but the ex-fuel and energy measure slowing, ANZ said in a note on Tuesday.New Zealand's annual consumer inflation increased by 4.1% in the June quarter, up from a 3.1% increase in the 12 months to the March quarter. Tradable inflation accelerated 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% year-over-year.The bank reiterated its forecast of 25 basis point rate hikes at the central bank's September and October meetings.The June quarter could have marked the peak in annual inflation following the oil price shock; however, oil prices are rising again, and the RBNZ is unlikely to stop worrying about potential spillovers.Gradual progress on non-tradable inflation and broadly contained core inflation is also unlikely to impact the monetary policy committee's policy assessment.The committee will be concerned about the effect of the fuel shock on inflation expectations and firms' pricing behavior. Administrative price inflation is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. However, New Zealand's economy may still have ample disinflationary spare capacity.

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