The July employment report was soft, with payrolls posting an unexpected decline, hourly earnings growth slower and the unemployment rate down due to a drop in the labor force.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July after a 20,000-jobs gain in June and a 63,000 increase in May, both revised sharply lower from their previous estimates. Private payrolls, which exclude a 53,000 decline in government jobs rose by 30,000, also well below expectations.
Health care and social assistance sector jobs increased by 22,600 but government sector jobs decreased by 53,000, leisure and hospitality jobs fell by 40,000 and retail payrolls declined by 19,400.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in June. The labor force contracted by 264,000 as labor force participation slipped. Household employment fell by 87,000 while the number of unemployed declined by 178,000.
Average hourly earnings were up only 0.1% in July, slower than a 0.3% increase in June, trimming the year-over-year rate to 3.2% from 3.4%.
The New York Federal Reserve's inflation expectations survey for July showed a reduction in the outlook at the one-year horizon and no change at the 3-year and 5-year horizons, but all three remained well above the Fed's 2% goal.
Consumer credit usage rose by $14.2 billion in June after a $1.1 billion decline in May, with large gains for both revolving credit and nonrevolving credit use.
The Q3 GDP nowcast estimate from the New York Fed is for a 2.24% gain, revised up from a 2.52% gain in the previous quarter.