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Crude Seen Testing Higher as US-Iran Tensions Deepen, EBW Says

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Crude prices are likely to test higher in the near term as renewed US-Iran tensions and constrained shipping via the Strait of Hormuz offset bearish signals from rising US crude inventories and strong production, EBW Analytics Group strategists said in a note Monday.

EBW analysts said that WTI settled at $82.40 per barrel on Aug. 14, up 5.4% for the week, with geopolitical risk pushing the benchmark higher as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran faded. Brent also posted a weekly gain, closing at $88.52/bbl.

The analysts projected that WTI would trade between $75 and $87.50 over the next seven to 10 days, with a target price of $80.50.

Over the next 30 to 45 days, the firm sees prices edging lower, with October futures forecast to trade between $68.50 and $85.50, with a target of $74.50. Its 90-day outlook is more bearish, with December crude seen in a $ 61.50- $ 71.50 range and a $69.50 target.

Commercial vessel traffic through the Hormuz has also deteriorated. Recent attacks on tankers have driven traffic through the strategic waterway to a fraction of pre-war levels, raising the risk that physical supply disruptions could persist even as crude inventories point to a well-supplied market.

The conflicting signals are making the oil market particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the seven-day average of oil moving through Hormuz exceeded 9 million barrels per day, while EBW estimates that about 15 million b/d are still leaving the Gulf through bypassing pipelines.

The latest US inventory data add to the bearish case. Commercial crude stocks increased by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, the largest weekly build since 2023, although EBW expects the increase to be temporary. US commercial inventories remain near five-year lows, while the Energy Department has estimated that as much as 9 million barrels a day are transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Russian export disruptions and releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve accounted for more than a third of the week's US crude-stock movement, according to EBW.

Meanwhile, US natural gas futures also gained last week, with the September contract rising 2.7%, to $2.733 per million British thermal units.

EBW expects the front-month contract to test higher before retreating, forecasting a seven- to 10-day range of $2.54 to $2.85 and a target of $2.63. Its 30-to-45-day outlook calls for prices to begin edging higher, with October gas seen at $2.48 to $2.91 and a $2.85 target.

For November, EBW expects a seasonal recovery, targeting $3.12 within a $2.92-to-$3.25 range.

The Energy Information Administration reported a 36 billion-cubic-foot storage increase for the week ended Aug. 7, the EBW said. The consultancy said another 16 Bcf build for the following week and forecasts end-August inventories at 3.215 trillion to 3.245 trillion cubic feet.

Pipeline and LNG infrastructure are providing additional supply. Gulf Coast Express has expanded by about 0.57 billion cubic feet per day, while the Hugh Brinson pipeline out of the Permian is beginning service on 1.5 Bcf/d of capacity, helping push production to record levels.

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