Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered since the June 17 memorandum of understanding, led by crude shipments, although trade routes and buyers remain largely unchanged, Vortexa said in a Thursday note.
The agreement marked the clearest improvement since disruptions began in late February, easing operational hurdles for vessels moving through the Gulf rather than simply delivering a diplomatic breakthrough.
The memorandum reduced pressure around Iranian port calls, while a sanctions waiver temporarily eased restrictions on Iranian crude, petroleum products and petrochemicals. Reports that Iran would not charge transit tolls during the initial 60-day period also lowered operating costs.
Shipping activity recovered quickly after the agreement, although Vortexa strategists said the rebound has largely restored existing Gulf trade instead of creating new export routes or attracting new buyers.
Daily cargo volumes through Hormuz typically ranged between 2 million barrels per day and 6 million b/d before the agreement, with occasional peaks near 10 million b/d. Traffic climbed sharply after June 17, reaching almost 20 million b/d on the busiest day.
Crude accounted for most of the increase, indicating more Gulf barrels are reaching Asian markets after weeks of disruption and making the recovery far more significant than a rise in refined product shipments.
The recovery has centered on very large crude carriers and Suezmax tankers, suggesting returning Middle East Gulf crude exports are increasing demand for long-haul crude shipping, Vortexa said.
Analysts said the reopening has not fully normalized operations because dark voyages still account for most crossings, alternative routes remain in use and sanctioned vessels have increased faster than overall tanker traffic, expanding operational and compliance risks.
Empty crude tankers also returned to the Gulf in larger numbers as vessels headed back to reload. The firm said dark-fleet very large crude carriers also resumed voyages toward Iran to load additional cargoes.
Although Hormuz has reopened, normal trading conditions have not returned as dark crossings still accounted for 62% of traffic after the MoU, while sanctioned vessel crossings increased from about one every two days before the agreement to more than two per day after June 17.
Clean petroleum products and liquefied natural gas shipments also recovered after the agreement, with liquefied natural gas posting one of the strongest proportional gains as Qatari exports resumed. Liquefied petroleum gas remained the weakest-performing segment.
Conventional Gulf producers accounted for most of the recovery, led by the UAE, followed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait. Iranian exports rebounded from May lows but remained concentrated in existing sanctioned trading channels.
The data showed non-Iranian crude exports accelerated through the second half of June, led by UAE Murban and Das grades, Iraqi Basrah crude, Qatari Al Shaheen and Saudi cargoes moving to Asian buyers.
India and China remained the largest buyers, while Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan also increased purchases, pointing to broad Asian demand instead of a recovery limited to sanctioned trade.
Vortexa said the recovery has reduced supply concerns by restoring Gulf crude exports and supporting demand for VLCCs and Suezmaxes, although elevated compliance, insurance and chartering risks continue to weigh on the market.
Vortexa said the recovery should continue if the memorandum of understanding holds through its initial window, while a breakdown could delay Gulf exports, slow tanker returns, raise war-risk premiums and renew uncertainty over regional crude supplies.
The firm said sustained returns of empty tankers, lower Iranian floating storage and cargoes leaving Malaysian staging areas would indicate buyers are absorbing additional crude instead of clearing existing backlogs.
Vortexa said the emergence of new buyers and continued demand for VLCCs and Suezmax tankers would signal a lasting recovery, while existing trade routes and counterparties continue to dominate market activity.