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CIBC Looks At Landfill Capacity Trends Out To 2044

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CIBC Capital Markets on Tuesday said landfill capacity scarcity is viewed as a structural tailwind for large solid waste companies.

The bank evaluated U.S. landfill capacity trends over the next two decades out to 2044 by making use of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Landfill Database. As of Sept. 2024, the bank said that the database showed that 28% of the total number of landfills that are expected to close between 2025 and 2044 will come from the Big 3 waste companies; Waste Management (WM), Waste Connections (WCN.TO, WCN) and Republic Services (RSG), as will 50% of total capacity expected to close.

CIBC observed that over 2015-2023, actual landfill closures did not necessarily happen as scheduled and that during this period, 22% of the total number of scheduled landfill closures actually went offline. It also noted that smaller landfills had a higher closure rate than larger landfills and that large landfills owned by private players were the most successful in extending their useful lives.

"We believe that the Big 4 (WM, WCN, GFL, and RSG) will be more successful in extending the permits for landfills they own that are scheduled to close, which directly addresses how they benefit from overall industry landfill capacity falling," said analyst Kevin Chiang. "Our view is that the Big 4 will benefit from rising tipping fees as landfill capacity becomes scarcer."

The bank also observed that regions with lower per capita landfill capacity align closely with higher tipping fees. It believes the three most landfill capacity-constrained regions in 2044 will be the Northeast, Southeast, and Pacific and views WM, GFL Environmental (GFL.TO, GFL), and WCN, as "best positioned" in these regions, respectively, based on relative landfill exposure within their own landfill portfolios.

The Northeast and Pacific already have the highest U.S. tipping fees, while the Southeast could see above-average fee growth given its expected decline in capacity per capita, the bank added.

"Rail egress provides a competitive advantage by enabling large operators to capture regional disposal arbitrage opportunities," said Chiang.

Price: $220.26, Change: $+0.67, Percent Change: +0.31%

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