Chinese economic indicators slid in April, with retail sales falling to their slowest since December 2022, indicating sluggishness in the second quarter.
Retail sales edged up 0.2% year over year in April, down from a 1.7% growth in March, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Monday.
The indicator missed a forecast for a 2% rise, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
The figure was the lowest since December 2022, according to NBS data seen by ING.
Chinese retail sales may have fallen after demand was frontloaded from China's trade-in policy, with auto sales sliding 15.3% year over year, household appliance sales declining 15.1%, and furniture falling 10.1%, ING said in its note Monday.
Petroleum prices may have also influenced lower retail sales growth in April, according to a separate note from Jefferies released Monday.
Sans autos, retail sales would have gone up 1.8% in April, compared with 3.2% in March, Jefferies and the statistics bureau said.
"We believe that while consumer sentiment remains vulnerable, selected subsectors performed better due to consumers' focus on value for money," analysts at the investment bank said.
Industrial output jumped 4.1% year over year in April, slowing from 5.7% in March and missing estimates of a 5.9% growth in a poll by Reuters.
The softening of data was "surprising" as exports were strong in recent months, but a slump in domestic activity could well be dragging other categories, ING analysts said in a note.
China's anti-involution policies, a crackdown on overcapacity, and aggressive price competition may have caused the 25.6% slide in solar cell industrial output, ING said.
The Iran war may have also contributed to the 5.8% decline in crude oil processing, the Dutch multinational bank said.
Crude oil production grew 1.2% to 17.9 million tons from a year earlier, with an average daily output of 598,000 tons.
Natural gas also rose 1.9% to 21.9 billion cubic meters from a year earlier, a slowdown from the 3% rise in March.
Fixed-asset investment also slid 1.6% year over year in the first four months, slower compared with market forecasts that predicted stable or slightly weaker growth, ING said.
Geopolitical uncertainties that may have affected investments possibly weighed on the steep drop from a growth of 1.7% in the first three months, the Dutch bank said.
Investment appetite could improve following U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing and the announcement of a new constructive strategic stability framework, which could contribute to less volatile relations, ING said.
Among other developments, both the U.S. and China have already announced reciprocal tariff cuts, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Sunday, but the gains have failed to excite investors.
On to housing, the prices of new residential properties in China's first-tier cities grew 0.1% month on month in April, decelerating from the 0.2% expansion in March.
Overall, the NBS's 70-city sample of property prices shows new home prices may have slipped 0.19% month on month, indicating proximity to the bottom, ING said.
"A stabilization in prices is a much-needed first step toward a recovery, as inventories remain high," the Dutch bank said.
