China's sharp pullback in crude imports is unexpectedly loosening regional supply constraints, allowing refiners across Asia to secure additional barrels and lift throughput despite the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Chinese crude imports month-to-date in May are tracking at about 6.6 million barrels per day, "the lowest level since 2016,' said Sumit Ritolia, modeling refinery and oil markets at Kpler.
The decline has reduced China's demand for cargoes from key suppliers, including Russia, Africa and the Americas, effectively freeing up volumes for other Asian buyers at a time when Middle Eastern flows remain constrained.
The shift has helped refiners in South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and India secure more flexible supply than initially expected, partially offsetting tighter Gulf barrels and preventing a deeper regional processing crunch.
Kpler said Asia ex-China refinery runs are now estimated at around 14.8 million b/d in May, up roughly 900,000 b/d from April, though still about 1.3 million b/d below year-ago levels.
The consultancy said a similar range of 14.8-15 million b/d is expected to persist into June, suggesting a gradual but limited recovery in regional throughput.
The shift in crude flows has been most pronounced in seaborne imports from the Atlantic Basin.
Ritolia said Asia ex-China imports of US crude are tracking near a record 1.94 million b/d in May, as refiners diversify supply sources.
African crude imports have also climbed to about 1.7 million b/d, also near historic highs.
South Korea has seen one of the largest monthly increases in demand, with crude imports rising to about 2.6 million b/d in May, up about 1 million b/d from April, though still around 450,000 b/d below a year earlier.
Gains have been driven largely by stronger US and African flows. Singapore and Thailand have also recorded higher arrivals during the month.
India's imports have remained resilient, tracking near 5 million b/d in May, up from an average of about 4.8 million b/d in 2025, potentially marking a record May intake. The increase has been supported primarily by Russian and Venezuelan crude flows.
However, despite improved availability, Kpler said Asian refining activity remains heavily disrupted.
Cumulative crude processing losses across the region are estimated at about 2.7 million b/d between March and May, including gasoil losses of 940,000 b/d, gasoline losses of 700,000 b/d and kerosene losses of 300,000 b/d.
Though some refiners have partially offset disruptions by increasing imports from the US, Africa, and other Atlantic Basin suppliers, regional runs remain well below seasonal norms.
Going forward, Kpler analysts said Chinese crude import trends will remain a key driver of Asian balances, as a sustained period of weaker Chinese demand is expected to continue supporting feedstock availability for regional refiners.