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CBA Economists Expect RBA to Hike Cash Rate to 4.6% After Inflation Surprise

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in November to 4.6%, following a stronger-than-expected July inflation result.

The lender had previously forecast that rates would remain on hold for the rest of the year.

"While inflation showed signs of moderating over the first half of the year, it has remained too high, and the RBA has increasingly signalled a low tolerance for upside surprises," according to CBA Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen.

The lender now expects September-quarter trimmed mean inflation is more likely to come in at 0.9% or higher, compared with the RBA's implied forecast of 0.8%.

The broader economic picture has not changed much, with growth slowing from an above-trend pace, the housing market weakening, and more workers becoming available for employers. However, the labor market remains tight overall.

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