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Canadian Retail Sales Weaken in July as Toronto Slump Masks Underlying Resilience, National Bank Says

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Toronto accounted for much of the 0.7% monthly decline in Canadian retail sales in July, while the broader picture remained relatively resilient, National Bank of Canada said in a Thursday note.

Toronto, which is Canada's biggest city and accounts for roughly 17% of national retail sales, saw sales plunge 4.7% monthly in July after a 4.3% surge in June, subtracting 0.8 percentage point from the national result, wrote National Bank after data from Statistics Canada.

Excluding Toronto, national retail sales would have edged up by around 0.1% on the month.

The weakness coincided with the end of Toronto's FIFA World Cup run, with the city hosting five of its six soccer matches in June and its final game on July 2, said the bank. Vancouver, the other host city, also saw sales decline 1.6%, while Montreal recorded a 1.3% increase.

Supporting the World Cup "hangover" explanation, StatsCan's preliminary estimate points to a 1.3% monthly rebound in retail sales in August, added National Bank.

However, rising gasoline prices in August suggest that some of the rebound may be price-driven rather than reflect stronger underlying consumer spending, said the bank.

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International

RBA Forecast to Hike Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points in September Meeting, BofA Securities Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Sept. 29, with the decision likely to be unanimous, BofA Securities said in a note on Wednesday.If the August consumer price index data leads the firm to revise its September quarter trimmed mean inflation forecast to 1% quarter-over-quarter, it will then forecast a further 25 basis points cash rate hike in November.The central bank's communication is likely to emphasize that inflation is too high with upside risks, the labor market remains tight, and growth is resilient.

ASX 200
International

New Zealand New Residential Mortgage Lending Falls in August

Total new residential mortgage lending in New Zealand fell to NZ$7.19 billion in August from NZ$7.85 billion in July, according to data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released on Thursday.Residential mortgage lending to first home buyers fell to NZ$1.48 billion in August from NZ$1.58 billion in the previous month. Lending to other owner-occupiers decreased to NZ$4.23 billion from NZ$4.68 billion.Residential mortgage lending to investors fell to NZ$1.4 billion from NZ$1.48 billion, while that for business purposes decreased to NZ$84 million from NZ$109 million.Total new residential lending at a loan-to-valuation ratio above 80% came in at NZ$1.2 billion in August for all borrower types, down from NZ$1.26 billion in July.Residential mortgage lending, where the loan-to-valuation ratio is equal to or below 80%, was NZ$5.99 billion for all borrower types, down from NZ$6.59 billion in the previous month.

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International

ANZ Raises New Zealand Farmgate Milk Price Forecast to NZ$9.80 Per kgMS for 2026/27

ANZ revised its farmgate milk price forecast for the 2026/27 season up to NZ$9.80 per kilogram of milk solids from NZ$9.20, with rising oil prices simultaneously supporting milk powder prices while pushing the New Zealand dollar lower, according to a Thursday report by the bank.The bank said potential escalation or resolution of the Middle East conflict remains the key risk to the forecast, given the strong correlation between milk powder and oil prices and the likelihood that oil price volatility will persist.ANZ noted that Fonterra's (ASX:FCG) 2025/26 payout has been finalized at NZ$9.69 per kilogram of milk solids, with farmers and shareholders earning a combined NZ$12.42 per kilogram of milk solids for the year once dividends and the tax-free capital return from the sale of the co-operative's consumer business are included.

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