The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin rig count increased by nine over the week to 209, reaching 55 above year-ago levels and surpassing RBC Capital Markets' second-quarter forecast of 143 rigs, RBC Capital Markets said in a Tuesday note.
The 209-rig count sits 34 above the five-year average, while the quarter-to-date average of 162 has surpassed RBC's second-quarter forecast of 143 rigs, according to the note.
Private operators added three rigs over the week, while large exploration and production companies producing more than 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day increased activity by six rigs, RBC said.
Montney activity rose by one rig to 36. Ovintiv (OVV) operated six rigs, and Tourmaline ran five, while Precision (PDS) held 22 rigs, or 61% of the total, followed by Ensign with seven rigs, or 19%, and Savanna with four rigs.
Duvernay activity declined by one rig to 15. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Paramount, and Whitecap each operated two rigs, while Ensign led drillers with five rigs, or 33% of total activity, followed by Fox and Jomax with two rigs each, RBC added.
Heavy oil drilling increased by five rigs to 52. Canadian Natural Resources operated 12 rigs, Spur six and Cenovus (CVE) five, while Precision controlled 24 rigs, or 46% of activity, ahead of Ensign's nine rigs and Savanna's five rigs.
Oil sands activity fell by two rigs to 14. Cenovus operated six rigs, while CNOOC and Canadian Natural Resources each ran two.
RBC expects covered producers to generate $7.6 billion of pre-dividend free cash flow in both 2026 and 2027 while reinvesting 62% and 63% of cash flow, below the five-year average of 64%.
Canadian oilfield services stocks declined 1% over the week. Enerflex (EFXT) gained 8.3%, Calfrac advanced 2.9%, and Trican added 2.2%, while Precision (PDS) fell 3.2%, Ensign lost 4.1%, and Pason dropped 5.2%, the note said.
RBC's Canadian oilfield services coverage group has gained 34.8% so far in 2026, outperforming the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, which has advanced 30.6% over the same period.
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