The Canadian economic outlook has improved somewhat, but the Canadian dollar still lacks a near-term catalyst, according to National Bank of Canada Capital Markets in a late Monday note.
Employment remains resilient, economic activity has regained momentum and firmer oil prices have helped push Canada's trade balance back into surplus, said the bank.
However, a wide Bank of Canada-Federal Reserve rate differential, relatively contained inflation and heightened uncertainty over the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or CUSMA as it's known in Canada, on trade following the July review continue to cap the loonie's upside, particularly amid the risk of US sectoral tariffs, added National Bank.
Canada's pro-growth agenda should support investment and underpin the bank's constructive medium-term outlook for the Canadian dollar, wrote National Bank's Chief Economist and Strategist Stefane Marion and Senior Economist Kyle Dahms in the note.
However, a stronger Canadian dollar recovery increasingly hinges on progress in USMCA negotiations.
The bank sees USD/CAD at 1.33 by spring 2027 compared with 1.39 on Monday.