The Canadian dollar is likely to see only limited gains this year, with ongoing US trade uncertainty continuing to weigh on the currency, according to Desjardins Economics in a note.
Avoiding a breakdown in the trade negotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or CUSMA as it's known in Canada, would reduce downside risks, but it wouldn't restore long-term certainty, said the bank.
"Avoiding a breakdown in CUSMA negotiations is not the same as restoring long-term certainty," wrote Desjardins Vice-President, Chief Economist and Strategist Jimmy Jean and Macro Strategist Tiago Figueiredo in Monday's note.
Recent tariffs on Canadian goods were broadly in line with expectations, but negotiations are likely to remain volatile before a more durable agreement is reached, they added.
The bank expects the Canadian dollar to strengthen "more meaningfully" in 2027 as trade uncertainty eases and the interest rate differential between Canada and the US narrows.
Desjardins sees the Canadian dollar-US dollar exchange at 1.42 this quarter, the same as in the second quarter, while in the last three months of the year it's estimated at 1.40. It is then forecast to fall to 1.38 in the first three months of 2027 and to 1.37 in the second quarter.