Canada's housing affordability improved further in the second quarter, as lower home prices more than offset higher mortgage rates, according to National Bank of Canada Capital Markets in a note.
The mortgage payment-to-income ratio fell 1.1 percentage points to 51.1%, marking a tenth consecutive quarterly improvement and the longest streak on record, wrote the bank in Friday's note.
"The drivers of the improvement are changing," wrote National Bank Senior Economist Kyle Dahms.
Mortgage rates rose 7bps in the second quarter and were 9bps higher annually, ending eight consecutive quarters of annual declines. A 2.1% drop in home prices instead improved affordability by 1.1 points, while higher incomes added another 0.4 point, more than offsetting the 0.4-point drag from higher rates, said the economist.
Vancouver and Toronto saw the largest gains as home prices fell, while affordability deteriorated in Quebec City, Winnipeg and Montreal as prices increased.
Since peaking in the last quarter of 2023, the Composite 10 affordability index has improved by 11.4 points to 51.1%, although it remains 10.4 points above its long-run average, added the bank. With interest rates unlikely to provide further relief over the coming year, further gains will increasingly depend on income growth and stable home prices.
Slower population growth should help contain housing demand, while a stronger labor market should support household incomes.