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Canada's Household Debt Burden Leaves the Economy Vulnerable, Rosenberg Research Says

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Canada's high household debt burden remains a key source of economic vulnerability, even with home prices down roughly 20% from their cycle peak, according to Rosenberg Research in a Wednesday note.

The median loan-to-income ratio (LTI) for first-time homebuyers climbed to a striking 372% last year, with more than one in five taking on an LTI ratio above 450%, wrote Rosenberg Research in the note.

The broader household debt-to-income ratio has stabilized at 166%, but remains more than 30 percentage points above its historical average since 1990 and well above levels in the business and government sectors, said Rosenberg.

Meanwhile, the household debt-service ratio remains near 15%, a level historically associated with recessions, despite interest rates being well below their previous peaks, it added.

"What was once a prudent and conservative society turned outright reckless and profligate in recent years," wrote Rosenberg in the note.

This high debt burden means that even modest borrowing costs can weigh heavily on household spending and overall economic activity, according to Rosenberg.

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