Canada's unemployment rate continues to fall despite weak employment growth, reflecting a sharp decline in the breakeven rate of job creation, according to BMO Capital Markets in a note.
Recent job gains have been robust, but six- and 12-month average employment growth is running at around 15,000 jobs per month.
Historically, that pace would have done little to shift the unemployment rate, yet the jobless rate has fallen by half a percentage point over the past year, wrote BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic in Monday's note.
Two key factors are keeping breakeven job growth unusually low, said the bank.
First, tighter immigration controls have slowed population growth to barely above zero, though this effect is likely temporary. By contrast, rapid population growth in 2023-2024 pushed breakeven employment gains above 60,000 per month, making it harder for job growth to keep pace.
Second, longer-term demographic trends are likely to keep weighing on the participation rate, further lowering the number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. However, the impact is expected to be more gradual and less pronounced than the recent effect of tighter immigration controls, added BMO's Kavcic.