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Business Indicators Data Present Upside Risk to Preliminary June Quarter GDP Growth Forecast, ANZ Says

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The sales figures in the June quarter business indicators data point to a robust print for the production-based measure of the Australian gross domestic product and are a source of upside risk to ANZ's preliminary 0.4% June quarter GDP quarter-over-quarter growth forecast, the bank said in a Monday release.

Company profits in the business indicators data were up 1.8% quarter-over-quarter to be 7.4% higher year-over-year. Converting this into the equivalent national accounts measure, it points to an around 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in private non-financial corporations' gross operating surplus.

Wages and salaries posted a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter gain to be 5.7% higher on an annual basis.

Private non-farm inventories will subtract 0.3 percentage points from the June quarter GDP growth, more than expected.

The combination of robust sales data in the business indicators data and a decline in private non-farm inventories provides a solid starting point for the September quarter GDP growth.

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