Brent crude oil is expected to stay above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and reach $88-per-barrel by the end of the year, as tight balances alone are sufficient to sustain the price of Brent near or above recent threshold levels, ANZ Research said in a Tuesday report.
The longer the conflict in the Middle East drags on, the more persistent these price dynamics are likely to be, ANZ said.
The conflict resulted in large‑scale, realized supply curtailments across core Persian Gulf oil producers. Relative to the analysts' January baseline, 9.5 million barrels per day of crude supply have been effectively removed from the market. This turned a modest expected surplus at the start of the year into a deep deficit.
The oil supply recovery is likely to be slow, incomplete and uneven, leaving the market structurally tighter and more volatile through mid‑2026, ANZ said.
An estimated 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of oil supply is at risk of being permanently or semi‑permanently lost due to issues such as reservoir damage, aging fields, deferred maintenance, and ongoing sanctions or financing restrictions, according to the report.