Underlying inflation in Australia is expected to rise 0.27% month over month in August, which would see annual growth remain steady at 3.6%, ANZ said in a Wednesday report.
The bank is forecasting a 0.4% monthly lift in headline inflation, a reading that would take annual growth to 3.9%.
While the July consumer price index data was strong, there may have been some residual seasonality in the trimmed mean measure for the month, and ANZ does not anticipate a similarly strong trimmed mean print for August.
"We think that many of the discretionary categories which came in stronger than expected in July will revert to their typical seasonal patterns," the bank said.
However, it added that the trend in six-month annualized trimmed mean inflation is still "concerning" for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Those concerns, combined with the central bank's rhetoric around second-order effects of higher oil prices, suggest policymakers will hike interest rates at a meeting later this month, due to be held just a day before the release of the August inflation data.
With trimmed mean inflation for the third quarter expected to print well above levels implied by the central bank's latest forecasts, ANZ expects another hike of 25 basis points in November to take the cash rate to 4.85%, it said.