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Australia's Trimmed Mean Inflation Forecast to Rise 0.3% Month-over-Month in July, ANZ Says

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Trimmed mean inflation in Australia is expected to lift 0.3% month-over-month in July, with headline inflation likely to rise 0.8% month-over-month and annual growth easing to 3.2% year-over-year, ANZ Research said in a note on Friday.

In July 2025, headline inflation was 1.3% month-over-month, with trimmed mean rising 0.5% over the same period. A range of prices reset on July 1, making it a seasonally strong month.

Electricity prices will be lower in July due to the new Default Market Offer coming in on July 1, with electricity prices forecast to have fallen 2.5% month-over-month. Fuel prices are anticipated to rise 8% month-over-month in July after three months of decline.

Housing is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July, down from June's 0.5%, while transport is forecasted to increase 2.5% as automotive fuel prices pick up. Recreation and culture is likely to rise 1.3%, and communications is expected to increase 1.6%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expecting an average of two 0.8% trimmed-mean inflation prints quarter-over-quarter over the September and December quarters. ANZ forecasts it to come in at 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter and at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter.

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