FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Australia's Downside Inflation Surprise Removes Case for Rate Hike in August, Westpac Says

By

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver a hawkish interest rate hold at its August monetary policy meeting as inflation has been more benign than the central bank's forecast, Westpac said in a Wednesday report.

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June, moderating from a 4% increase in the previous month, with market services inflation and the all-important housing-related components both coming in below expectations.

"We no longer expect rate hikes by the RBA this year," Westpac said. "The substantial pass-through of higher energy costs seen in the early phase of the Middle East conflict has not been followed up in recent months."

Westpac still expects the RBA to debate the case for a rate increase in August, noting that a risk of a hike in November still exists if inflation accelerates again in the third quarter, although this is not part of the bank's base case scenario.

Additionally, the latest inflation print does not alter Westpac's forecast August 2027 timing for the central bank to start unwinding rate hikes implemented earlier this year, it said.

Related Articles

International

Singapore Export Prices Rise 12.7 in June, Import Prices Up 13.6%

Singapore's export prices rose 12.7% year over year in June, according to data from the Singapore Department of Statistics on Wednesday.The latest pace of expansion eased from the 14.6% rise in May, missing the 13.7% growth forecast by Trading Economics.Meanwhile, import prices edged up 13.6% year over year, slowing from the 18.5% increase in May.

^STI
International

Singapore's Producer Price Inflation Slows in June

Factory-gate prices in Singapore were mixed in June, with the Domestic Supply Price Index rising 30.3% year over year, while the Singapore Manufactured Products Price Index increased 31.1%, according to the Singapore Department of Statistics on Wednesday.The Domestic Supply Price Index growth eased from the 34.1% increase logged in May, and missed the Trading Economics forecast for a 33% increase.The Manufactured Products Price Index expansion accelerated from the 30.9% growth recorded in May.On a month-on-month basis, the Domestic Supply Price Index fell 2.5% in June after declining 2.0% in May, while the Singapore Manufactured Products Price Index slipped 0.7%, extending the 0.2% decline recorded in May.

^STI
International

Australia's Inflation Increases 3.8% in Year to June

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June from a 4% increase in the year to May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Wednesday.The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing, which rose 6.8%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture, both up 3.3%.Annual housing inflation was primarily driven by rising costs for electricity and new dwellings.Electricity remains a major driver of annual inflation, with prices over 22% higher than a year ago, largely due to the end of government rebates that had previously lowered household electricity bills, said Rachael McCririck, the bureau's head of prices statistics.Trimmed mean annual inflation was 3.6% in the 12 months to June, unchanged from the 12 months to May.Transport inflation eased notably, with the annual rate slowing to a 0.1% increase, compared with a 3.3% rise in May."Lower world oil prices as a result of some stabilization in the Middle East in June contributed to fuel prices falling 10.9% in the month," McCririck added.The CPI declined by 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms during the month of June.

ASX 200