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Atlantic Basin LNG Export Capacity Tightens on Seasonal Maintenance, Vortexa Says

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Atlantic Basin LNG utilization has eased in recent weeks as seasonal maintenance across major US export terminals coincides with a typical shoulder-season demand slowdown, Vortexa strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

"The Atlantic Basin has become the backbone of global LNG supply since March, owing to unprecedented disruption in the Middle East," Florence Yu, associate LNG Market analyst at Vortexa, said, adding that its market share rose from 44% in February to 55% in May 2026.

However, utilization of export capacity has declined, with the four-week moving average falling to around 80% in the week to May 31 from a peak of 89% in early March.

Vortexa said that despite the decline, there is limited near-term upside in available capacity.

The data analytics firm said that, excluding sanctioned Russian facilities and largely idle Egyptian export terminals, Atlantic Basin utilization has remained close to full capacity, averaging about 100% in March and about 90% in May.

Exports from the Atlantic Basin slipped from a record 18.5 million metric tons in March to 17.7 million tons in May, broadly tracking seasonal patterns as the market enters lower-demand months when maintenance activity typically rises.

US LNG terminals have driven much of the recent volatility. Vortexa analysts said operators on the US Gulf Coast have largely followed planned maintenance schedules, even amid tighter global supply conditions.

The 16.5 million tons per annum Freeport LNG facility entered scheduled maintenance in mid-May, while the 13.5 mtpa Cameron LNG terminal recently completed annual maintenance on one processing train after about 30 days of downtime.

Corpus Christi LNG also saw partial outages earlier in May. No extended downtime is expected at Sabine Pass LNG in 2026.

Though some US exporters had considered adjusting maintenance schedules to maximize cargo availability amid elevated prices, most operators have proceeded with previously planned work ahead of anticipated stronger Asian summer demand.

Performance has been mixed outside the US. Vortexa data showed that Nigeria LNG has continued to operate at relatively strong levels, averaging about 90% utilization, while Russia's Yamal LNG has outperformed in recent years, averaging about 120%.

Seasonally, LNG utilization typically weakens in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Over the past three years, Atlantic Basin utilization has averaged about 74% during June-August compared with 88% in Q1.

Going forward, US LNG operations may also be influenced by the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters expect to be below normal, with 8-14 named storms and up to three major hurricanes.

Vortexa said a relatively mild season would likely limit weather-related disruptions. The most recent significant impact occurred in July 2024, when Hurricane Beryl triggered outages and loading delays along the US Gulf Coast, including a two-week shutdown at Freeport LNG.

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