The power grid of Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has seen decades of discussion but little progress so far, could lead to significant economic losses, foregone renewable capacity and exposure to fossil fuel price shocks if delayed further, according to a report by Ember Energy.
According to the report, the power grid coming online just a year early, at 2035 instead of 2036, could result in savings of up to $2.6 billion.
The one-year delay, it said, would lead to a cumulative increase in gas consumption by about 12 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 78 Q-Max LNG carriers, while adding more than 42 million tonnes of Co2 emissions.
Similarly, a five-year delay would raise additional gas consumption to more than 55 bcm and increase carbon emissions by over 71 million tonnes by 2040.
The report also highlighted that a year's delay would leave as much as 7.2 gigawatts of solar capacity undeveloped in 2035 and require about 3.5 GW of additional battery storage. Singapore would also require an additional 300 megawatts of gas-fired capacity, which could remain in operation for decades.
At the same time, renewable-rich regions including Indonesia's Sumatra, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Myanmar could also lose more than $1.1 billion in potential electricity export revenue for every year the grid is delayed, the report said.
According to analysts at Ember, the ASEAN Power Grid's biggest bottleneck was governance, rather than economics, due to fragmented regulations and the absence of harmonized transmission tariffs and cost-recovery frameworks.