New Zealand's economy likely grew 0.1% in the second quarter from the linked three-month period, ANZ said in a Wednesday report as it revised its preliminary forecast of a 0.2% contraction.
While higher fuel prices weighed on discretionary spending and broader confidence in the second quarter, relative strength in other areas of the economy, particularly construction, appears to have prevented overall gross domestic product from shrinking, the bank said.
"Timely data suggests reasonable GDP growth has resumed in recent months," ANZ said, noting that its 0.1% growth estimate compares with a flat forecast from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
The RBNZ has hinted it might be able to put off the next interest rate hike until December. A GDP print slightly above the central bank's forecast may reassure policymakers about the recovery "but would not be a material enough surprise to meaningfully shift their view," ANZ said.
The bank also expects the annual current account deficit to widen by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% of GDP due to higher fuel import costs.
Second-quarter GDP data is due for release on Sept. 17, and balance of payments data a day prior.