FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

ANZ Expects Australia's Trimmed Mean Q1 CPI to Rise 0.9% Quarter-On-Quarter

By

Australia's trimmed mean inflation expectedly rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year, with a 3.6% year-on-year increase, said ANZ in a Friday report.

The bank expects that the consumer price inflation rose 1.4% quarter on quarter and 4.1% year-on-year.

The divergence between headline and trimmed mean inflation partly reflects the impact of higher fuel prices in March, the bank said, as it expects a 35% month-on-month rise in automotive fuel in March, leading to a headline inflation increase of 1.2% month on month in March.

ANZ expects the second-round pass-through from higher fuel costs to start having a more material impact on consumer inflation from April.

The quarterly data is likely to affirm for the Reserve Bank of Australia that the underlying inflation pressures are evident in the economy before the escalation of the Middle East conflict in late February, ANZ added.

ANZ continues to expect a 25 basis points hike in May by the central bank, taking the cash rate to 4.35%.

Related Articles

International

New Zealand Credit Card Spending Rises in March as Balances Decline

Credit card spending in New Zealand increased by 0.7% month on month to NZ$4.87 billion in March after a 0.1% increase in the previous month, while credit card balances fell 0.5% to NZ$6.08 billion in March, data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Thursday.Domestic billings on New Zealand-issued cards rose by 0.8% to NZ$4.14 billion in March, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Billings on overseas-issued cards fell to NZ$726 million from NZ$748 million.Compared with the year-earlier period, credit card spending rose 2.1% in March after a 0.6% increase a year ago.

^NZ50
International

Moody's Revises Outlook on New Zealand to Negative; Finance Minister Willis Flags Debt Servicing

Moody's has revised its outlook on New Zealand's AAA credit rating to negative from stable in a move that again signals a need for checks on spending and borrowing, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said Thursday following the ratings agency's outlook cut."Moody's choice to put New Zealand on negative watch is another warning that we can't afford to simply spend more and borrow more, or we risk higher interest rates, higher borrowing costs and more pressure on Kiwi families," Willis said.In its decision, the ratings agency pointed to persistent inflation pressures, including fuel price hikes and higher electricity costs, as well as the country's delayed return to a budget surplus, according to media reports."The [outlook] revision also confirms the need for any support delivered in response to the Middle East conflict to be temporary and targeted," Willis said, adding that debt servicing now represents the fourth-largest cost to taxpayers.

^NZ50
International

Japan's Manufacturing Output Growth Hits 12-Year High; Service Sector Expansion Slows

Japanese manufacturing output rose at its steepest rate since February 2014, although this rebound was tempered by a slower expansion in service sector activity, pulling overall private sector growth to its weakest pace in four months during April.The S&P Global Flash Japan PMI Composite Output Index dipped to 52.4 in April from 53.0 in March, remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.While total activity has now expanded for 13 consecutive months, the latest reading marked the softest rate of growth seen so far in 2026.Some manufacturers raised output due to concerns over future supply shortages linked to the Middle East war, contributing to the sharp manufacturing uptick.In contrast, service sector activity grew at its mildest pace in 11 months, while new export business at the composite level rose at the slowest rate in four months.Employment continued its steady rise for over 2.5 years, though capacity pressures persisted as outstanding business levels increased for the fifth straight month.Average input costs surged at the sharpest rate since January 2023, driven by higher prices for staff, raw materials, fuel, and energy-often tied to Middle East developments and a weak yen.Goods producers experienced notably steeper cost inflation than service providers, pushing average output charges to rise at the quickest pace since composite data began in late 2007.Business confidence regarding future output weakened for the second consecutive month, falling to its lowest level since August 2020 due to uncertainty and market disruption from the Middle East war.

Nikkei 225