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Annual Solar Installations to Decline for First Time in 2026, Says SolarPower Europe

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Global solar installations are forecast to drop 8% to 612 gigawatts in 2026 as a 24% slowdown in China offsets continued growth across the rest of the world, noted SolarPower Europe in its industry outlook released on Monday.

Annual installations are expected to drop marking the first annual decline in solar deployment since tracking began in 2000, as per the report.

The projected 2026 downturn is primarily driven by a 24% market contraction in China, which accounted for 57% of all global solar installations in 2025.

Having already achieved its 2030 renewable capacity targets six years ahead of schedule in 2024, the Chinese market is experiencing a temporary lull as developers recalibrate to new policy signals issued under the 15th Five-Year Plan in March, the report added.

Further, the report noted that rest of the world continues to expand, with demand for solar underpinned by electrification of economies and acute fossil fuel energy security concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict.

The broader solar sector is entering a phase defined by structural barriers, including grid congestion, rising capacity curtailment, and frequent periods of negative wholesale electricity prices, the report noted.

Long-term projections have been revised downward, with 2030 global capacity forecast cut to 6.6 TW from a previous estimate of 7.1 TW, according to the outlook.

The report also said that unlocking further upside potential depends on policy support to fast-track grid modernization and battery storage deployment, mirroring recent strategic shifts in Australia.

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