Alumis' (ALMS) share price drop after the disappointing results of a phase 2b trial of envudeucitinib to treat systemic lupus erythematosus was likely an overreaction, Oppenheimer said in a note emailed Wednesday.
The investment firm said that the "consistent and positive results" seen in the pre-specified subpopulation IFNGS-high indicate that envudeucitinib has "continued potential in the biomarker-defined population," which represents the majority of people with systemic lupus erythematosus.
The investment firm said the IFNGS-high population may represent 60% to 80% of people with systemic lupus erythematosus, and several analyses of large datasets put that figure around the 70% to 80% range.
Oppenheimer said that it expects Alumis to start a study in 2027 in this population after talks with the US Food and Drug Administration, with the company on track for a new drug application filing to treat plaque psoriasis in Q4 2026.
The investment firm said it now narrowed the market opportunity for envudeucitinib to treat systemic lupus erythematosus, but updated its evaluation around the opportunity for the candidate drug in plaque psoriasis.
Oppenheimer kept Alumis' outperform rating, while lowering the company's price target to $37 from $55.
Price: $10.58, Change: $+1.11, Percent Change: +11.67%