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Alberta's Fiscal Outlook Improves Sharply Amid Higher WTI Prices

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Higher West Texas Intermediate oil prices have helped Alberta to significantly improve its finances, with the Canadian province now expecting a CA$2 billion ($1.44 billion) cushion and a surplus for the sixth straight year for fiscal year 2026-27, the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance said Thursday.

The Alberta government reported an CA$11.4 billion improvement in its fiscal position after projecting a CA$9.4 billion deficit in Budget 2026 in February.

The improvement was driven by a more than CA$9.7 billion increase in non-renewable resource revenue due to higher WTI oil prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, an additional CA$545 million in corporate income tax revenue, and an over CA$1.4 billion rise in other revenues.

The province's total revenue for 2026-27 is forecast at CA$86.3 billion, up CA$11.7 billion from the Budget 2026 estimate, with non-renewable resource revenue now projected at CA$23 billion, up CA$9.7 billion from the February outlook.

Alberta also raised its 2026-27 WTI price forecasts to $73.50 per barrel, up $13 per barrel from its February forecast of $60.50/bbl, the statement said.

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Commodities

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