Artificial Intelligence has not yet had a significant impact on Canada's labor market, but Bank of Canada research indicates that its effects are beginning to emerge, particularly through weaker hiring in occupations most exposed to AI.
Rather than replacing entire jobs, AI is more likely to automate or streamline specific tasks, with its impact varying across different occupations, the central bank's researchers wrote in a "Sparks at Bank" analysis published on Thursday.
The BoC's analysis shows the average AI-exposure score rose to 0.29 in 2025, indicating that nearly one-third of jobs could undergo significant changes given current AI capabilities.
Exposure is particularly high in occupations such as receptionists and accountants, while roles that rely more heavily on physical interaction, human judgment or specialized expertise, including judges and carpenters, tend to be less affected, wrote BoC economists Dany Brouillette, Tatjana Dahlhaus and Gabriela Galassi.
Workers in highly AI-exposed occupations already faced greater unemployment risk in 2015-19, but the gap widened from 1.9 to 2.8 percentage points by 2025. This appears to reflect weaker job-finding rates rather than increased layoffs or job separations, the economists wrote.
Young workers may be more vulnerable because they are concentrated in highly AI-exposed roles. However, the BoC cautions that the evidence doesn't establish AI as the cause, given other labor-market shifts since 2019.
The analysis points to patterns that "suggest that any adjustments may show up first through slower hiring (a lower job finding rate) rather than more people leaving jobs (a higher job separation rate)," they added.
The longer-term impact will depend on the pace of AI adoption, advances in AI capabilities and how quickly workers adapt.